paul baker.

Talk about anything to do with Cheltenham Town, CTFC 500 Club, League 1, ex players & Managers

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Sprout Picker
Posts: 1150
Joined: 20 Nov 2009, 11:20
Robin wrote:Does SC cover also non-league games? Would be interesting to compare like for like as I suspect Yates has the best record in this division of all CTFC managers.
As you say Robin, it needs to be a like-for-like comparison. A lot of SC's games would have been in the Conference whereas both Allen (disastrously) and Ward have a number in League 1.
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Laurence
Posts: 80
Joined: 03 Apr 2011, 19:21
Taz1985 wrote:Ok. Win % for 4 managers.

MY - Played 196, Won 73. Win % - 37.2
MA - Played 61, Won 13. Win % - 21.3
JW - Played 207, Won 76. Win % - 36.7
SC - Played 255, Won 118. Win % - 46.3

Very interesting reading when you look at the stats like that.
I don't really like win percentage as an indicator of managerial performance. First, the variation in cases. The smaller the number, the greater the variation in percentage - a few wins or losses could send that percentage significantly up or down. So, it's not really fair to judge MA against three managers who have three times the number of games (and no that's not to defend his appalling time in charge, but basic data analysis). Second, a statistic like winning is contextually dependent. We know that budgets have a significant relationship to success, i.e. clubs that spend the most tend to be the most successful. So when it comes to judging managerial performance we are looking for managers who "over perform", which is to say exceed expectations. In Yates first full season he had a squad that was basically bought at Lidil, so I'd say that value of wins that season was greater than this season where it is expected that - more often than not given the budget - Cheltenham win. Likewise Allen's record looks more risible given his Hatherley Manor Hotel budget. So, it would be good to see some weighting applied to these results - is a win in League One worth more in League Two? Finally, Win percentage tends to work best as a bivariate measure (win or lose), it doesn't handle the third outcome of a football match well. For example, consider over a season (46 games) a manager who wins 46 percent of games but loses 53 is worse (63 points) than a manager who wins 46 percent, draws 25 percent and loses 25 percent (75 points). It's the difference between a play-off/promotion spot and mid-table mediocrity.
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leohoenig
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I have just received an e-mail where the records are limited to League-2 (or equivalent by any other name) games. Third tier and Conference matche excluded (hence Allner and Downing are excluded)

By points per game it comes out at
SC - 1.57
JW - 1.40
MY - 1.39
BB - 1.33 (only three games)!
MA - 1.08
BG - 1.07
JS - 0.75

When you look at % games won, Mark Yates scores just ahead of Ward, but we also lost a greater % of games under Yates than Ward (i.e. more draws to Ward). Similarly, Gould both won and lost more games than Allen
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RegencyCheltenhamSpa
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Joined: 21 Nov 2009, 03:27
Look at the steady points under JS!
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Alf
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Joined: 17 Apr 2011, 08:24
Taz1985 wrote:Ok. Win % for 4 managers.

MY - Played 196, Won 73. Win % - 37.2
MA - Played 61, Won 13. Win % - 21.3
JW - Played 207, Won 76. Win % - 36.7
SC - Played 255, Won 118. Win % - 46.3

Very interesting reading when you look at the stats like that.
With all due respect, that's history.
We should be looking at the present situation and the future.
I think as ctfc fans, we spend too much time looking backwards.
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Shade
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Joined: 27 Sep 2010, 13:02
Location: Cheltenhamshire
Alf wrote: I think as ctfc fans, we spend too much time looking backwards.
We're not the only ones, all clubs bang on about their glory days or comparing their managers (those that aren't having any current success, at least). And there is only so much looking to the unwritten future you can do - you're optimistic about it or you're downbeat about it, and either way someone calls you an idiot for what you believe or hope.
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Andy
Alf wrote:I think as ctfc fans, we spend too much time looking backwards.
And how have you reached that conclusion? By looking at previous posts I assume :) ;)
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PB is the man
Posts: 25
Joined: 10 Jul 2013, 22:29
There is still plenty of time in the season before it's panic stations, absolutely no need for knee jerk reactions to the very average start we've had. I have no doubt both PB and MY know this too.
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Robin
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How can you describe the start of the season as "very average start"?!! I would imagine this is possibly our worst start ever to a season in this division.
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51/84
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Joined: 24 Nov 2009, 10:20
certainly at the moment no problems as we should/could get into the top half but if we want playoffs we need to start getting points on the doors
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Si Robin
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Joined: 20 Nov 2009, 10:29
Until the Torquay game it was joint worst with 01/02. Played 7 and 6 points.

However, we won our 8th game of that season to then be on 9 points. If we win on Saturday, it'll be exactly the same as after 9 games in 01/02 again. I'm sure I don't need to remind people what happened in 01/02.
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PB is the man
Posts: 25
Joined: 10 Jul 2013, 22:29
Robin wrote:How can you describe the start of the season as "very average start"?!! I would imagine this is possibly our worst start ever to a season in this division.
Perhaps "very average" are the wrong words to use (my apologies); but insert anything you like for those words, such as poor, terrible or mediocre and the point of my post remains the same.

A good example of this point was indeed in the 01/02 season, as Si Robin points out above.
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Robin
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Joined: 20 Nov 2009, 11:19
51/84 wrote:certainly at the moment no problems as we should/could get into the top half but if we want playoffs we need to start getting points on the doors
I would be disappointed with play offs, promotion minimum aim for me this season.
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taxidave
Posts: 3510
Joined: 20 Nov 2009, 09:56
Location: Crewe station buffet, wish I'd stayed there!
Si Robin wrote:Until the Torquay game it was joint worst with 01/02. Played 7 and 6 points.

However, we won our 8th game of that season to then be on 9 points. If we win on Saturday, it'll be exactly the same as after 9 games in 01/02 again. I'm sure I don't need to remind people what happened in 01/02.
Comparing sh!t with sh!t doesn't make this start to the season any more palatable.
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leohoenig
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It is true that Dave had just as many complaints in 2001 as he has now. He has not mellowed with age.
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taxidave
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leohoenig wrote:It is true that Dave had just as many complaints in 2001 as he has now. He has not mellowed with age.
One day, just one day Leo you will agree with something I post on this forum, I look forward to that day but maybe Hell will freeze over before it happens.
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Andy
taxidave wrote:
leohoenig wrote:It is true that Dave had just as many complaints in 2001 as he has now. He has not mellowed with age.
One day, just one day Leo you will agree with something I post on this forum, I look forward to that day but maybe Hell will freeze over before it happens.
I bet Leo agrees with that :) LOL
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Shade
Posts: 16976
Joined: 27 Sep 2010, 13:02
Location: Cheltenhamshire
Just wondering - when does the start to the season end? 10 games?
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C.V
According to this Shade it was supposed to have started on September 5th

http://www.thisisgloucestershire.co.uk/ ... z2fuS5vRPt" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;


Dont think anyone passed the news on to our team though because they are still on there summer break

The feel good factor is back though

http://www.thisisgloucestershire.co.uk/ ... z2fuS5vRPt" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Shame our league position doesnt reflect this though
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Nesty
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Joined: 18 Jun 2011, 09:17
I accept statistical evidence in the form of points per game etc, but how can entertainment value be measured?
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asl
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Joined: 20 Nov 2009, 09:37
Nesty wrote:I accept statistical evidence in the form of points per game etc, but how can entertainment value be measured?
It's called 'Crowd Attendance', I think.
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RegencyCheltenhamSpa
Posts: 29814
Joined: 21 Nov 2009, 03:27
Nesty wrote:I accept statistical evidence in the form of points per game etc, but how can entertainment value be measured?
Subjectively - some may like a backs to the wall 1-0 with no decent play, some may be entertained by tough challengers and fights regardless of the score, and others may prefer on the deck pass and move and attempts at playing like The Arsenal regardless of the result.

As for attendance and how people feel about the team, I think the main driver is results.

Didn't see Stoke fans whinging or moaning when they were playing really dire and vile stuff but still getting good points at home, whereas Liverpool last season played sublime stuff at home but just didn't ever put it in the net and the fans were not happy.
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