This season v 2013/14

[vickeryc]

After eight games we have 14 points, compared with 7 at the same stage last season. Our goals ratio is currently 7/5; whereas at the start of 2013/14 it was 11/19. That is an incredible stat. Despite scoring 4 more goals at the same stage last year, we only amassed half the number of points we have now.

Fortunately the abysmal defending, which plagued much of 2013/14, has been addressed to the extent that we have conceded around a quarter of the number of goals we shipped in the early months of last season. It proves that, to stand any realistic chance of success, you must have a sound defence.

All we need now is to sort out our attack! I don't know what's wrong with Byron, but the sooner he regains his confidence and/ or fitness the better. Shame Marquis is short-term - he's the sort of player that looks to make things happen and creates chances for others even if he isn't scoring many himself. He's the sort of player that fans like - plenty of commitment - and has shown he has the potential to score goals. Unfortunately, although Terry Gornell's commitment can't be questioned, you never feel he will score many goals. Unless a good striker can be magically brought in, I feel we have to hope Byron can start reproducing last season's form soon.

[Benctfc]

Yates did say he wanted to bring in a striker before Saturday however that has all gone quiet.

[Robin]

So this season is starting to pan out as many predicted that we would have a season of transistion have improved at hte back but weaker going forward. Sadly it may be next year before we can realistically get back challenging to get out this league.

[Darren Angels budgie]

So this season is starting to pan out as many predicted that we would have a season of transistion.

You clearly have a short memory Robin. You yourself could "see nothing but another season of struggle" rather than a season of transition.

[Robin]

Suggest you read my posts again where I said many times this will be a season of transistion.

[Artemis]

Give Terry a chance with Marquis up front

[Darren Angels budgie]

Suggest you read my posts again where I said many times this will be a season of transistion.

Just read them Robin. Here's a few to remind you.

"I said 3 weeks ago before pre-season started that the 2 releagtion places will be filled from CTFC, Exeter, Accy and Morecambe."

"What worries me is on the assumption Yates is sacked in the first few months, if the board get the new manager selection wrong I can seriously see our league status being at risk."

"We had a terrible season last year, what makes you believe we will have a dramatic improvement and get back challenging for promotion again?"

"I always feel our natural standing should be 8th-14th in this league however I had to plump for 17th-22nd this season."

"I have been following CTFC since the eighties and I honestly don't recall starting any season with such little expectation."

"I have very little hope. I fear this season will be on a par or possibly even worse than last. I do think we will stay up however it could be rocky."

[Robin]

Yep I'd say most of that fits with my comments about transistion none of which you have replied.

By the way is the first one really me? I don't think I have ever predicted us for the drop so my question is genuine.

[Shade]

You'd swear a £5 note was a 50p coin if you'd said otherwise in the past.
Also you've said many times you're a natural optimist. If those comments are you being optimistic then I'd hate to see you being negative. You seem to have gotten this idea that you're an optimist purely from foolishly declaring we would be top 3 last season, because I, and I'm sure most of everyone else, have still yet to see any proof of it on the RNF!

Anyway, I don't see a natural slide yet. We lost 1-0 at Luton, a game in which we had chances but couldn't take them, and lost 1-0 to Southend in a game that had a player sent off and a bent ref. The goals will come at some point. I'm still sure it's too soon to be condemning the season as one that will be of mediocre transition after 1 bad week where we conceded just 2 goals.

[Robin]

I am an optimist Shade always have been and always will be but at the same time I am able to call out if things are not great.

[Slothar]

Suggest you read my posts again where I said many times this will be a season of transistion.

Just read them Robin. Here's a few to remind you.

"I said 3 weeks ago before pre-season started that the 2 releagtion places will be filled from CTFC, Exeter, Accy and Morecambe."

"What worries me is on the assumption Yates is sacked in the first few months, if the board get the new manager selection wrong I can seriously see our league status being at risk."

"We had a terrible season last year, what makes you believe we will have a dramatic improvement and get back challenging for promotion again?"

"I always feel our natural standing should be 8th-14th in this league however I had to plump for 17th-22nd this season."

"I have been following CTFC since the eighties and I honestly don't recall starting any season with such little expectation."

"I have very little hope. I fear this season will be on a par or possibly even worse than last. I do think we will stay up however it could be rocky."

Analysing these quotes and applying the Slothar ‘Transition vs. Struggle’ quotient to quantify each element of the sample (based on the 20th century psychoanalytical study of language by Noam Chomsky), the results show a balance of 55% towards struggle and 45% towards transition.
Although not a landslide, it is a clear enough majority and one that if good enough to decide the Scottish referendum, is good enough to declare that from the sample quotes, Robin is significantly favouring the struggle over transition sentiment.

However, it seems that one of the quotes above (the first, as disputed by Robin) is indeed not of Robin’s hand. It was posted by Bigdavejambo. In fact, Robin even queries why we are in the list:

‘Out of interest why are we more likely to go down versus say Mansfield/Wycombe (similar clubs but with money problems) or alternatively Stevenage/Dagenham (smaller clubs).’

This renders the study null and void and the only actionable info is to place an asterisk against Darren Angels budgie in the database to draw attention to a (possibly wilful) misrepresentation of the facts and corruption of the raw data. Slothar (and Slothar’s employer – although they are unaware of this frivolous twenty minutes) are unhappy at this waste of analysis and time.

The initial vickery statistics of five goals conceded, seven scored is a sure indicator that mid-table beckons. Solid teams don’t go down, teams that struggle to score don’t go up. The good news is that a defensively sound team is rarely reliant on individuals. At league two level, the loss of one, two and even three players tend not to cause a significant increase in goals conceded. However, adding a single creative force can have dramatic effects on the goals scored.

Whatever your stance is currently or was in pre-season / close season / last season – fears of relegation can be assuaged and with the addition of a significant goal threat (be it scorer or creator) there is reason to be cautiously optimistic.

[vickeryc]

I agree. If we're not shipping goals left right and centre we've got something to build on, as has already been proven this season. We've doubled last season's points tally to date, despite having scored 4 goals fewer. I don't want to reopen old wounds, but I think Scott's reluctance to either call or come off his line was largely responsible for much of the indecision at the back. Our defence was regularly at sixes and sevens. Carson is completely different and it shows. Even players like CBB are now putting in decent defensive performances.

The chances of landing a decent striker at our level is remote, so our best hope remains Byron in my view. He's proven that he can score goals. Last season he actually performed better after he was dropped, so maybe it's time to try a different pairing up front. Few would disagree that Byron probably deserves to be dropped to the bench.

[CheltRobin]

I think I would go for Gornell/Marquis up front on Sat.

[Peter Griffin]

If we compare this season with the equivalent games last season (I'm taking the highest relegated team as equivalent to the highest placed promoted team and so on so Tranmere=Chesterfield, Carlisle=Scunthorpe etc)

Bury (a): Last season lost 4-1, this season won 1-0=+3 points
Accrington (h): Last season lost 2-1, this season won 2-1=+3 points.
Carlisle (h): Last season lost 2-0 (to Scunthorpe) this season drew 0-0=+1 point
Tranmere (a): Last season lost 2-0 (to Chesterfield) this season won 3-2 =+3 points
Hartlepool (h): Last season drew 2-2, this season won 1-0=+2 points.
Morecambe (a): Last season won 1-0, this season drew 0-0=-2 point.
Luton (a): Last season lost 1-0 (against Bristol R) this season lost 1-0=0 points (gained or lost)
Southend (h): Last season lost 2-1, this season lost 1-0=0 points.
Dagenham (h) Last season lost 3-2, this season drew 1-1=1 point.

So that's an 11 point gain. Pretty impressive.

[RegencyCheltenhamSpa]

Suggest you read my posts again where I said many times this will be a season of transistion.

Just read them Robin. Here's a few to remind you.

"I said 3 weeks ago before pre-season started that the 2 releagtion places will be filled from CTFC, Exeter, Accy and Morecambe."

"What worries me is on the assumption Yates is sacked in the first few months, if the board get the new manager selection wrong I can seriously see our league status being at risk."

"We had a terrible season last year, what makes you believe we will have a dramatic improvement and get back challenging for promotion again?"

"I always feel our natural standing should be 8th-14th in this league however I had to plump for 17th-22nd this season."

"I have been following CTFC since the eighties and I honestly don't recall starting any season with such little expectation."

"I have very little hope. I fear this season will be on a par or possibly even worse than last. I do think we will stay up however it could be rocky."

Analysing these quotes and applying the Slothar ‘Transition vs. Struggle’ quotient to quantify each element of the sample (based on the 20th century psychoanalytical study of language by Noam Chomsky), the results show a balance of 55% towards struggle and 45% towards transition.
Although not a landslide, it is a clear enough majority and one that if good enough to decide the Scottish referendum, is good enough to declare that from the sample quotes, Robin is significantly favouring the struggle over transition sentiment.

However, it seems that one of the quotes above (the first, as disputed by Robin) is indeed not of Robin’s hand. It was posted by Bigdavejambo. In fact, Robin even queries why we are in the list:

‘Out of interest why are we more likely to go down versus say Mansfield/Wycombe (similar clubs but with money problems) or alternatively Stevenage/Dagenham (smaller clubs).’

This renders the study null and void and the only actionable info is to place an asterisk against Darren Angels budgie in the database to draw attention to a (possibly wilful) misrepresentation of the facts and corruption of the raw data. Slothar (and Slothar’s employer – although they are unaware of this frivolous twenty minutes) are unhappy at this waste of analysis and time.

The initial vickery statistics of five goals conceded, seven scored is a sure indicator that mid-table beckons. Solid teams don’t go down, teams that struggle to score don’t go up. The good news is that a defensively sound team is rarely reliant on individuals. At league two level, the loss of one, two and even three players tend not to cause a significant increase in goals conceded. However, adding a single creative force can have dramatic effects on the goals scored.

Whatever your stance is currently or was in pre-season / close season / last season – fears of relegation can be assuaged and with the addition of a significant goal threat (be it scorer or creator) there is reason to be cautiously optimistic.

Enjoyed reading at.

[Peter Griffin]

If we compare this season with the equivalent games last season (I'm taking the highest relegated team as equivalent to the highest placed promoted team and so on so Tranmere=Chesterfield, Carlisle=Scunthorpe etc)

Bury (a): Last season lost 4-1, this season won 1-0=+3 points
Accrington (h): Last season lost 2-1, this season won 2-1=+3 points.
Carlisle (h): Last season lost 2-0 (to Scunthorpe) this season drew 0-0=+1 point
Tranmere (a): Last season lost 2-0 (to Chesterfield) this season won 3-2 =+3 points
Hartlepool (h): Last season drew 2-2, this season won 1-0=+2 points.
Morecambe (a): Last season won 1-0, this season drew 0-0=-2 point.
Luton (a): Last season lost 1-0 (against Bristol R) this season lost 1-0=0 points (gained or lost)
Southend (h): Last season lost 2-1, this season lost 1-0=0 points.
Dagenham (h) Last season lost 3-2, this season drew 1-1=1 point.

So that's an 11 point gain. Pretty impressive.

To update:
Burton (a) Last season lost 3-1, this season lost 1-0=0 points
Wimbledon (h) Last season won 1-0, this season drew 1-1=-2 points
Shrewsbury (a) Last season lost 2-0 (to Rochdale)this season lost 3-1=0 points.
Northampton (h) Last season drew 1-1, this season won 3-2=2 points.

Still 11 points better off than in the corresponding fixtures.

[Nesty]

interesting stats - thanks