More frustrating than last season?

Jon Palmer · 15 Feb 2018, 13:50

Do you agree with Harry Pell? http://bit.ly/PellOnSeason" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

15 Feb 2018, 15:53

It's not great but an improvement on last season in my eyes.

RegencyCheltenhamSpa · 15 Feb 2018, 16:07

I think it is an improvement on last season but also more frustrating.

Improvement as we have a better team and will finish higher in league.

Frustrating as we have missed opportunities this season to finish higher still, whereas last season that was not the case.

Ihearye · 15 Feb 2018, 16:39

Yes, as I thought we would kick on this season, but as it stands, it remains to be seen how much we actually have improved on last year. Luckily there are two teams looking likely to be cut adrift. I hope so, as the rest of the pack are not too far away! On paper better players on the pitch not a significantly better team. Was going to ask, what does that mean? Seems those questions are frowned upon

Oldun · 15 Feb 2018, 16:50

Please define "significantly".

CTFC03 · 15 Feb 2018, 17:39

[quote
Yes, as I thought we would kick on this season, but as it stands, it remains to be seen how much we actually have improved on last year. Luckily there are two teams looking likely to be cut adrift. I hope so, as the rest of the pack are not too far away! On paper better players on the pitch not a significantly better team. Was going to ask, what does that mean? Seems those questions are frowned upon][/quote]

Couldn't agree more, nail hit on the head.

Del Boy · 15 Feb 2018, 18:28

Oldun wrote:Please define "significantly".

In a sufficiently great or important way.

16 Feb 2018, 09:05

Del Boy seriously mid-table pretty much the whole season this year, in a relegation scrap pretty much the entire season last year how is that not significant progress?

Del Boy · 16 Feb 2018, 09:25

Robin wrote:Del Boy seriously mid-table pretty much the whole season this year, in a relegation scrap pretty much the entire season last year how is that not significant progress?

Come again Robin?? I know our views differ but there's no need to jump on every post. Personally I'll judge 'significant' progress at the end of the season - just like you were saying all last year to judge at the end of the season.

Oldun merely requested a definition of significant. I gave him one. If you don't agree with it you're disagreeing with the Oxford English Dictionary. That wouldn't surprise me given some of your posts but your quarrel is with them not me.

Oldun · 16 Feb 2018, 10:29

The problem lies in what you see as "great and important" as far as CTFC is concerned. Given the finances, the injuries and (dare I say) lack of rub of the green my view is that we have significantly improved this season. Other will view it differently and some will want to launch another personal tirade as on other thread because I dare argue from a positive perspective

16 Feb 2018, 12:12

I am not (at least intentionally) jumping on every post but to suggest there has not been a significant or at least very visible improvement from last season is pretty inaccurate and even incendiary. By my own admission I am baffled by some of the criticism because I feel it's way over the top however it equally doesn't mean some criticism is not valid. I fully conceed we should be doing better and this season has been disappointing.

Where I have an issue is back in the summer a small group of posters criticised GJ incessantly and predicted we would be in a relegation scrap, other than the first month or so it simply has not transpired or even looked like happening. Now the mandate appears to be criticise GJ because with a bad run of form we could get dragged into it not considering at all the form of other teams. In short, I fully expect our results and league position to fluctuate but would be greatly surprised if we don't finish somewhere between 15th-18th based on that and our injures I do not expect any drastic action over the mgrs role nor would i welcome it.

Del Boy · 16 Feb 2018, 12:18

Robin wrote:I am not (at least intentionally) jumping on every post but to suggest there has not been a significant or at least very visible improvement from last season is pretty inaccurate and even incendiary. By my own admission I am baffled by some of the criticism because I feel it's way over the top however it equally doesn't mean some criticism is not valid. I fully conceed we should be doing better and this season has been disappointing.

Where I have an issue is back in the summer a small group of posters criticised GJ incessantly and predicted we would be in a relegation scrap, other than the first month or so it simply has not transpired or even looked like happening. Now the mandate appears to be criticise GJ because with a bad run of form we could get dragged into it not considering at all the form of other teams. In short, I fully expect our results and league position to fluctuate but would be greatly surprised if we don't finish somewhere between 15th-18th based on that and our injures I do not expect any drastic action over the mgrs role nor would i welcome it.

Robin, give it up. Oldun asked for a definition of significant. I gave him one.

I didn't even comment whether I thought there had been significant improvement or not. You're rowing with yourself.

Ihearye · 16 Feb 2018, 12:19

Oldun wrote:Please define "significantly".

When one takes the contrast in improvement in the playing squad this year from last year, I don't feel that the 'team' has progressed to an noticable amount. Or indeed and amount that could be gauged by the improvement in the squad. In so far as we should not be stil in the position of looking over are shoulders. Which is what I belive the situation is. You are quite at liberty to think otherwise

RegencyCheltenhamSpa · 16 Feb 2018, 13:13

To be significantly different in a statistical sense we need to be able to say we are better proven to a 95% confidence level.

I propose to undertake two analyses come the end of the season.

1. How many standard deviations from the mean number goals were we last season. And his many this season. Then test to see if our change compared to the mean was statistically significant. Repeat same test for points.

2. Based upon our percentage increase in league position from last season to this and taking 24 teams as the sample size test if our league position improvement is statistically significant.

The first test will also factor in improvements to other teams.

Only after the results are published and peer reviewed can we say, with 95% confidence, whether we have significantly improved. If the null hypothesis (no change) is rejected we can run the tests again with a 99% confidence level to be extra certain of significant change.

Sprout Picker · 17 Feb 2018, 10:16

RegencyCheltenhamSpa wrote:To be significantly different in a statistical sense we need to be able to say we are better proven to a 95% confidence level.

I propose to undertake two analyses come the end of the season.

1. How many standard deviations from the mean number goals were we last season. And his many this season. Then test to see if our change compared to the mean was statistically significant. Repeat same test for points.

2. Based upon our percentage increase in league position from last season to this and taking 24 teams as the sample size test if our league position improvement is statistically significant.

The first test will also factor in improvements to other teams.

Only after the results are published and peer reviewed can we say, with 95% confidence, whether we have significantly improved. If the null hypothesis (no change) is rejected we can run the tests again with a 99% confidence level to be extra certain of significant change.

Probably easier just to look at the league table.

RegencyCheltenhamSpa · 17 Feb 2018, 11:13

Sprout Picker wrote:
RegencyCheltenhamSpa wrote:To be significantly different in a statistical sense we need to be able to say we are better proven to a 95% confidence level.

I propose to undertake two analyses come the end of the season.

1. How many standard deviations from the mean number goals were we last season. And his many this season. Then test to see if our change compared to the mean was statistically significant. Repeat same test for points.

2. Based upon our percentage increase in league position from last season to this and taking 24 teams as the sample size test if our league position improvement is statistically significant.

The first test will also factor in improvements to other teams.

Only after the results are published and peer reviewed can we say, with 95% confidence, whether we have significantly improved. If the null hypothesis (no change) is rejected we can run the tests again with a 99% confidence level to be extra certain of significant change.
Probably easier just to look at the league table.

But would it be significantly better?

Sprout Picker · 17 Feb 2018, 14:04

RegencyCheltenhamSpa wrote:
Sprout Picker wrote:
RegencyCheltenhamSpa wrote:To be significantly different in a statistical sense we need to be able to say we are better proven to a 95% confidence level.

I propose to undertake two analyses come the end of the season.

1. How many standard deviations from the mean number goals were we last season. And his many this season. Then test to see if our change compared to the mean was statistically significant. Repeat same test for points.

2. Based upon our percentage increase in league position from last season to this and taking 24 teams as the sample size test if our league position improvement is statistically significant.

The first test will also factor in improvements to other teams.

Only after the results are published and peer reviewed can we say, with 95% confidence, whether we have significantly improved. If the null hypothesis (no change) is rejected we can run the tests again with a 99% confidence level to be extra certain of significant change.
Probably easier just to look at the league table.
But would it be significantly better?

Depends how you define 'significantly' I guess.