Possession or Goals?

RegencyCheltenhamSpa · 30 Mar 2018, 23:45

Seems like some people think that because we had possession today we were the better team.

Let us review the last six games:

Opponents: Carlisle
Possession: 54%
Goals:0
Result: loss

Opponents:Crawley
Possession: 49%
Goals: 5
Result: win

Opponents:Chesterfield
Possession: 49%
Goals: 1
Result: draw

Opponents:Swindon
Possession: 50%
Goals:3
Result:win

Opponents:Notts County
Possession: 52%
Goals: 1
Result: Draw

Opponents: Luton
Possession: 42%
Goals: 2
Result: draw

So what do we see?

Games with most goals scored by CTFC are away from home where we had lowest possession.

The only defeat was the game where we had most possession.

We did not win a game in a match where we had more than 50% possession.

Verdict?

Having the ball for the sake of it achieves nothing if we don’t try something ambitious with it.

If we don’t have the ability or confidence to try anything other than sideways passing then we should always look to play on the counter and encourage the other team to play snooze ball like Carlisle did to us today.

vickeryc · 31 Mar 2018, 07:04

I take your point RCS, but it doesn't always apply. For example,

Opponents: Notts County
Possession: 38%
Goals: 1
Result: Lost 1-3

Opponents: Luton (H)
Possession: 53%
Goals: 2
Result: Draw 2-2

Opponents: Newport (H)
Possession: 44%
Goals:1
Result: Draw 1-1

Opponents: Barnet (A)
Possession: 50%
Goals: 2
Result: Won 2-0

Opponents: Crewe
Possession: 50%
Goals: 1
Result: Won 1-0

Opponents: Colchester
Possession: 59%
Goals: 4
Result: won 4-1

Just saying that the possession theory is far from conclusive. However, it is true that teams with less possession (e.g. Leicester in their amazing season) can often be effective at hitting opponents on the break. Lies, damn lies and statistics!

RR88 · 31 Mar 2018, 07:22

All of that possession did however end up with us having 21 shots.....although only 5 on target. We just simply were not accurate enough and on another day may have converted a few of those shots. I enjoyed the game and felt entertained by the quality of the football.

THECHOIRBOY · 31 Mar 2018, 07:25

I also don't have complete confidence in possession stats

I looked at BBC after about fifteen minutes where I felt we had had most the ball. This was just after a period of possession of about two minutes resulting in a shot. I looked at BBC and it said carslile had 60% at that time

RR88 · 31 Mar 2018, 07:28

I looked at half time and it gave us 48%. I could not believe it!

vickeryc · 31 Mar 2018, 07:37

I'm also sure that at HT BBC stated that we'd had 6 shots on target, yet at FT we'd only had 5!

Oldun · 31 Mar 2018, 08:11

Fascinating stuff RCS. Have you the time to do the analysis for the whole season (or even for the last three which would be even better and give a much stronger and a more sound basis for mathematical theory)?

Failing that I am unhappy with your suggested conclusion and side with RR88 in that our failing yesterday was in that we could not out the ball in the net! Blatantly obvious I know! The approach stuff was very god for an hour. We created chances. We had one break from our box to theirs and it fizzled out. Shots were scuffed, misdirected, blocked etc. Joe miscued, Daws misdirected a tap in. Mo was bit slow getting shot away etc. As said elsewhere out approach play was very good and certainly not sideways passing because we did open them up. The same striker force that hit 5 last week let us down yesterday.
Scores on doors? I would give most 8 in first hour (maybe not Grimesy who had his hands full with the big unit up front) and most of them 7 for last 30 minutes. Exceptions to that would be Scotty who got 9 in second half and Nige who got 9 all game!

RegencyCheltenhamSpa · 31 Mar 2018, 09:20

RR88 wrote:All of that possession did however end up with us having 21 shots.....although only 5 on target. We just simply were not accurate enough and on another day may have converted a few of those shots. I enjoyed the game and felt entertained by the quality of the football.

How many of those shots were rushed or out of desperation as we had run out of ideas passing around their box and in front of their defenders? Hopeful shots yes but constructed moves and genuine chances? Rarely.

RegencyCheltenhamSpa · 31 Mar 2018, 09:25

Oldun wrote:Fascinating stuff RCS. Have you the time to do the analysis for the whole season (or even for the last three which would be even better and give a much stronger and a more sound basis for mathematical theory)?

Failing that I am unhappy with your suggested conclusion and side with RR88 in that our failing yesterday was in that we could not out the ball in the net! Blatantly obvious I know! The approach stuff was very god for an hour. We created chances. We had one break from our box to theirs and it fizzled out. Shots were scuffed, misdirected, blocked etc. Joe miscued, Daws misdirected a tap in. Mo was bit slow getting shot away etc. As said elsewhere out approach play was very good and certainly not sideways passing because we did open them up. The same striker force that hit 5 last week let us down yesterday.
Scores on doors? I would give most 8 in first hour (maybe not Grimesy who had his hands full with the big unit up front) and most of them 7 for last 30 minutes. Exceptions to that would be Scotty who got 9 in second half and Nige who got 9 all game!

I am going to that at seasons end. Two scatter plots of every game: (possession, goals) and (possession, points).

I will also segment our games into ones where our possession 47% or less, where possession is 48-50%, 50-52%, and 53% or higher. Then calculate average goals and average points per game for each segment and if any pattern emerges.