Little ol' Cheltenham?

[vickeryc]

This topic keeps cropping up so I've done some research covering the years that we've been an EFL club. Nesters who hate stats can look away now!

Clearly, all clubs' fortunes ebb and flow and many factors affect a club's "status", including off-field income generation; injections of cash (e.g. Rushden & Diamonds, Fleetwood, Crawley, FGR); ownership of infrastructure; etc. It’s impossible to take all of these into account, so I focussed on attendances and league 'status' over the last 20 seasons, including 2018/19.

Attendances of teams currently in EFL2

For consistency, I’ve only compared fourth tier attendance averages over the last 20 seasons. I found that nine clubs’ attendances produced an average position above 10th, which is significantly better than Cheltenham's average ‘position’ of 15.5. Excluding these clubs, L2 teams’ average fourth tier attendance rankings over that period are (current L2 clubs in bold):
• Lincoln (10.5 average position/ 13 seasons)
• Wycombe (10.1/ 12)
• AFC Wimbledon (10.6/ 5)
• Cambridge (11.6/ 8)
• Hartlepool (11.6/ 8)
• Crewe (12.0/ 6)
• Exeter (12.5/ 10)
• Yeovil (12.8/ 6)
• Rushden & Diamonds (13.3/ 4)
• Mansfield (13.4/ 15)
• Darlington (14.0/ 10)
• Colchester (14.8/3)
• York (15.3/9)
• CHELTENHAM (15.5/ 15)
• Newport (17.2/ 6)
• Bury (17.9/ 12)
• Stevenage (18.8/ 6)
• FGR (19.5/ 2)
• Burton (16.7/ 6)
• Hereford (17.6/ 5)
• Fleetwood (18.0/ 2)
• Chester (18.2/ 6)
• Rochdale (18.3/ 13)
• Aldershot (18.5/ 4)
• Torquay (19.1/ 12)
• Crawley (20.0/ 5)
• Kidderminster (20.4/ 5)
• Barnet (21.4/ 12)
• Boston (21.8/ 5)
• Morecambe (21.6/ 11)
• Macclesfield (23.1/ 12)
• Dag & Red (23.3/ 7)
• Accrington (23.5/ 12)

League "status"

Cheltenham have spent all but five of the last 20 seasons as a fourth tier club (more tan any other club, bar Mansfield), having flirted with the third tier for four seasons and having a single season back in the Conference. Here are the other clubs that have spent at least 10 of the last 20 seasons in the fourth tier.
• CHELTENHAM (15 seasons)
• Mansfield (15)
• Lincoln (13)
• Rochdale(13 - currently L1)
• Shrewsbury (13 - currently L1)
• Northampton (12)
• Bury (12)
• Macclesfield (12)
• Barnet (12 -currently NL)
• Torquay (12 - currently NL)
• Accrington (12 - currently L1)
• Wycombe (12 -currently L1)
• Carlisle (11)
• Morecambe (11)
• Southend (11 - currently L1)
• Oxford (11 - currently L1)
• Notts County (10)
• Bristol Rovers (10 - currently L1)
• Darlington (10 – currently NL)

Excluding clubs with significantly bigger fan bases than the Robins, those that have spent as many or more seasons at a higher level than Cheltenham over the last 20 seasons are:
• Colchester (17 seasons, including 2 in second tier), most recently in 2015
• Crewe (13, including 6 in second tier), most recently in 2015
• Yeovil (10, including 1 in second tier), most recently in 2014
• Hartlepool (9) most recently in 2012 though currently in NL
• Bury (8)
• Wycombe (8)
• Rochdale (7)
• Fleetwood (5)
• Burton (4, including 2 in second tier)

Conclusions

It’s hard to draw conclusions. However, (excluding clubs that have gone bust and since re-formed – e.g. Rushden), those that have had the most similar levels of support to Cheltenham have been:
• York (+0.2) though now play two divisions below L2
• Colchester (+0.7) though have played at consistently higher levels
• Newport (-1.7)
• Mansfield (+1.9)
• Bury (-2.4)
• Yeovil (+2.7) though until 2015/16 played at consistently higher levels
• Exeter (+3.0)
• Stevenage (-3.3)
• Crewe (+3.5)though until 2016/17 largely played at consistently higher levels

Yes, I know I should get out more!

[Robin]

So do I read from this that our 15th place attendances support my statement that mid-table league two is probably our natural level right now? Interesting stuff by the way.

[vickeryc]

Yes, based on attendance fankings over the last 20 seasons. However, crowds have slipped quite a bit in the last 7 or 8 years as has our league 'status', so it's fair to say we are probably a few places lower now!

[RegencyCheltenhamSpa]

Whilst 15.5 is our average, what is the range? Have we ever featured in the top 12 or been bottom, for example. If we can understand when our attendances have had a higher rank of 15.5 we can start too look at why that was the case, and then see it any of those factors can be recreated.

[vickeryc]

Whilst 15.5 is our average, what is the range? Have we ever featured in the top 12 or been bottom, for example. If we can understand when our attendances have had a higher rank of 15.5 we can start too look at why that was the case, and then see it any of those factors can be recreated.

Fourth tier seasons - attendance ranking followed by league position in brackets:

2000/1 - 10th (9th)
2001/2 - 9th (4th)
2003/4 - 15th (14th)
2004/5 - 17th (14th)
2005/6 - 16th (5th)
2009/10 - 14th (22nd)
2010/11 - 15th (18th)
2011/12 - 14th (6th)
2012/13 - 15th (5th)
2013/14 - 17th (18th)
2014/15 - 21st (23rd)
2016/17 - 18th (21st)
2017/18 - 17th (17th)
2018/19 - 19th (22nd)

[leohoenig]

while I have not quite worked out what Vickery is trying to show, for completeness of our football league years

1999/2000 - 11th (8th)

And in the third tier

2002/3 - 21st (21st)

2006/7 - 23rd (17th)
2007/8 - 24th (19th)
2008/9 - 22nd (23rd)

While considering the meaning of the ranking, do not forget that from 2007/8 to 2008/9 our crowds dropped but the ranking rose
This will not be an isolated occasion

[vickeryc]

while I have not quite worked out what Vickery is trying to show, for completeness of our football league years

1999/2000 - 11th (8th)

And in the third tier

2002/3 - 21st (21st)

2006/7 - 23rd (17th)
2007/8 - 24th (19th)
2008/9 - 22nd (23rd)

While considering the meaning of the ranking, do not forget that from 2007/8 to 2008/9 our crowds dropped but the ranking rose
This will not be an isolated occasion

Thanks, Leo, for adding 1999/00, which I'd mislaid. I didn't include the third tier seasons (or National League) stats for consistency and ease of comparison.

I was trying to see how Cheltenham compared with other clubs of similar status. It was prompted by posts from others who have expressed contrasting views on where we 'rank'. Whilst the outcomes are a bit inconclusive, I was surprised that vastly improved league placings in 2011/12 and 2012/13 (6th and 5th) resulted in virtually the same attendance rankings as other seasons around that time when we finished much lower.

[RegencyCheltenhamSpa]

Whilst 15.5 is our average, what is the range? Have we ever featured in the top 12 or been bottom, for example. If we can understand when our attendances have had a higher rank of 15.5 we can start too look at why that was the case, and then see it any of those factors can be recreated.

Fourth tier seasons - attendance ranking followed by league position in brackets:

2000/1 - 10th (9th)
2001/2 - 9th (4th)
2003/4 - 15th (14th)
2004/5 - 17th (14th)
2005/6 - 16th (5th)
2009/10 - 14th (22nd)
2010/11 - 15th (18th)
2011/12 - 14th (6th)
2012/13 - 15th (5th)
2013/14 - 17th (18th)
2014/15 - 21st (23rd)
2016/17 - 18th (21st)
2017/18 - 17th (17th)
2018/19 - 19th (22nd)

Interesting. There look to be three ‘phases’.

The promotion honeymoon where our attendances were generally ranked 9th-11th.

A spell where were ranked 14th-16th.

And the recent lower trend of 17th-21st.

Re: the point that we were in the 14th-16th bracket during play-off seasons and during more struggling seasons. This is pretty much our average rank and doesn’t seem to vary based on performance. Personally I think the drop from this bracket to the 17th-21st bracket is heavily influenced by the pitch quality dropping off a cliff and ticket price.

As the pitch continues to get back to acceptable standard over the next few years following the disastrous groundshare then hopefully our attendances - relative to the rest of the league - will once again enter a period of 14th-16th or better.

[Shade]

Whereas our attendances have undeniably dropped over the last few seasons and probably would go back up a bit if we had a good few seasons, It's very interesting to see that the second season we went up (05/06) we only had the 16th highest attendance, and the two seasons we got into the play-offs under Yates only 14th and 15th. The novelty obviously wore off after our first relegation from Division 2. I can't see us getting anywhere near the lower mid-table again unless the likes of Accrington drop back down and small clubs get promoted up, bumping us up almost by default.

[RegencyCheltenhamSpa]

Whereas our attendances have undeniably dropped over the last few seasons and probably would go back up a bit if we had a good few seasons, It's very interesting to see that the second season we went up (05/06) we only had the 16th highest attendance, and the two seasons we got into the play-offs under Yates only 14th and 15th. The novelty obviously wore off after our first relegation from Division 2. I can't see us getting anywhere near the lower mid-table again unless the likes of Accrington drop back down and small clubs get promoted up, bumping us up almost by default.

Novelty wore off and a return to our natural level it seems. Plus of course the groundshare was taking effect to offset the effect of a well placed season finish.

[vickeryc]

I think Shade's point about more smaller clubs entering the EFL is a significant factor in helping us stay away from the lower reaches of the attendance rankings. Especially so since the introduction of National League play-offs for a second promotion place in 2002/3.

[Robin]

No reason our attendances cannot grow again if we can have some sustained success. In my opinion there is a lot of untapped potential in these parts. As for our attendances I recall they were pretty solid under Ghould but dropped away under John Ward. That period we had two successive 14th placed finishes and the football was pretty boring and direct (reasonably effective however), which shows to me once you lose support it's hard to get them back and need success as well as good marketing/community engagement (Lincoln showing this in abundance).

[vickeryc]

Yes, based on attendance fankings over the last 20 seasons. However, crowds have slipped quite a bit in the last 7 or 8 years as has our league 'status', so it's fair to say we are probably a few places lower now!

Correction, I should've said 5 rather than 7 or 8 years. Since 2013/14, our average L2 attendance has slipped to 18.2 and our average league position 20.2.

[RegencyCheltenhamSpa]

No reason our attendances cannot grow again if we can have some sustained success. In my opinion there is a lot of untapped potential in these parts. As for our attendances I recall they were pretty solid under Ghould but dropped away under John Ward. That period we had two successive 14th placed finishes and the football was pretty boring and direct (reasonably effective however), which shows to me once you lose support it's hard to get them back and need success as well as good marketing/community engagement (Lincoln showing this in abundance).

Indeed as the season after the two 14th finishes we came 5th.

What is telling is that our four seasons in L1 our attendances ranked from 21st to 24th. The two seasons we survived they ranked 23rd and 24th.

So we have to make a step change in support numbers to get up to L1 mid table ecehelons in terms of attendances.

[SHANDY VOR]

Plus of course the groundshare was taking effect to offset the effect of a well placed season finish.

Absolute nonsense on so many levels

[RegencyCheltenhamSpa]

Plus of course the groundshare was taking effect to offset the effect of a well placed season finish.

Absolute nonsense on so many levels

Not at all. Others on here have previously stated they stopped renewing their season ticket, or knew other people who did, due to the horrendous state of the pitch and the impact it had on games.

[SHANDY VOR]

It wasn't the pitch you needed to worry about, it was the horrendous state of the product on it.

[RegencyCheltenhamSpa]

It wasn't the pitch you needed to worry about, it was the horrendous state of the product on it.

The two were linked. The state of the pitch enforced a certain style, which was dire to watch.

[SHANDY VOR]

I disagree, the pitch suited our passing game and we also had a Plan B. City were adaptable.

Too many of you used the pitch as a smokescreen for your lack of quality.

[Shade]

You say that, but our results were significantly better away from home, if I recall correctly, where the pitches were much better than our own.
Then again, they have been this season and we can't blame the pitch.