Next 7 Games

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Shade
Posts: 16823
Joined: 27 Sep 2010, 13:02
Location: Cheltenhamshire
vickeryc wrote:To date, we have yet to lose any of the 7 games played against the six teams below us, winning 4 and drawing 3.
That makes a change. It's usually those sides we slip up against whilst getting some decent results against teams we wouldn't expect to.
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Nesty
Posts: 6652
Joined: 18 Jun 2011, 09:17
a good start - we won 2 out of 2 against fellow strugglers, keep this up and we are looking safe
Robin
Posts: 15948
Joined: 20 Nov 2009, 11:19
Surely we are effectively safe from here on in unless we hit a terrible run of form? Realistically three wins and a couple of draws all that is needed over the next sixteen games.

Better now to concentrate on finishing higher than last season disappointing 17th place so we can start next season with optimism.
RegencyCheltenhamSpa
Posts: 29758
Joined: 21 Nov 2009, 03:27
Robin wrote:Surely we are effectively safe from here on in unless we hit a terrible run of form? Realistically three wins and a couple of draws all that is needed over the next sixteen games.

Better now to concentrate on finishing higher than last season disappointing 17th place so we can start next season with optimism.
When the five remaining wins are secured a new target will be declared.
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Lord Elpuz
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Joined: 20 Jul 2011, 19:35
Lord Elpuz wrote:We will be fine...

A) Carlisle - 6th - Draw 1-1 (1 point)
(H) Macclesfield - 23rd - WIN 2-0 (3 points)
(H) Cambridge - 20th - WIN 3-1 (3 points)
(H) Yeovil -22nd - WIN (4-2) (3 points)
(A) Colchester - 4th - LOSS 2-1 (0 points)
(A) Grimsby - 15th - LOSS 2-1 (0 points)
(H) Port Vale - 19th - WIN 3-2 (Barnett hat-trick - 3 points)

Points total = 13
Total after Port Vale game = 42

which by my reckoning will leave us with 6 home games to gain about 5 points for safety.
Looking like my predicted points haul which I made on 16 January is pretty accurate (even if the actual scores were incorrect) apart from my expected draw at Carlisle, when in fact we lost. If we do beat Port Vale this coming Saturday, we will have a points tally of 41 - pretty close to the 42 points I expected us to get by this coming Saturday, and we will be within touching distance of safety, leaving us with 6 home games to gain about 6 points for safety ... so any away game points will be a bonus. “Fortress Johnny Rocks” has come good for us.
Johnsons Red Army
Posts: 1599
Joined: 27 Dec 2015, 14:19
Location: Stroud
Johnsons Red Army wrote:(A) Carlisle - 6th - LOSS
(H) Macclesfield - 23rd - WIN
(H) Cambridge - 20th - WIN
(H) Yeovil -22nd - WIN
(A) Colchester - 4th - LOSS
(A) Grimsby - 15th - DRAW
(H) Port Vale - 19th - WIN
Have to say I'm pretty pleased with my predictions so far too.

Who said this league was unpredictable :lol: ?
THECHOIRBOY
Posts: 900
Joined: 20 Nov 2009, 10:15
THECHOIRBOY wrote:
RegencyCheltenhamSpa wrote:
THECHOIRBOY wrote:The usual rationality I'd expect to see from the Nest.

It's rare we win four on the spin at home so not sure we have to do that! Equally the sides around us are also playing each other so we could arguably play about four or five more games and not pick up a point and still not be bottom

Note. I am not saying I want or expect this. But I am saying that as long as we pick them up I don't care where we get them from. I'd say 11-12 is realistic. Expecting to win all four at home is often what causes tension and frustration at home (and why we have been known to perform better against higher teams)
What’s winning four in a row got to do with it. Look at the individual home games: whether they are four a row or two months between each, are you saying you are happy to not beat a bottom five side at home?

I criticised Gary for the home failures vs Barnet and FGR last season (amongst others) and I will equally disappointed not to win similar fixtures this season.

Unbelievable that you question the rationality of expecting to win home games against poor teams who are in the bottom four or five.
I will stick to my view. I think it's unlikely we will win all four at home. I hope we will. I don't expect it.

Why do i not expect it? Because history and data shows us winning four league games in a row at home is something we do not do often. We know you love data RCS! In fact the last time we did it was the last 5 games of the promotion winning season in Conference in 15/16 when we won 5 on the spin. The last time we did it in League 2 from my quick research appears to be March 2013.

Nearly 6 years ago. So based on that evidence my expectation would not be for us to win all 4 no; whoever it may be against!! So yes, I guess i am questioning rationality if we look at the information that could make a logical decision.
Delighted to be proved oh so wrong!
Johnsons Red Army
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Joined: 27 Dec 2015, 14:19
Location: Stroud
6 out of 7. Can't complain about that.

Now if only I had bet on them....
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Lord Elpuz
Posts: 692
Joined: 20 Jul 2011, 19:35
Johnsons Red Army wrote:6 out of 7. Can't complain about that.

Now if only I had bet on them....
Ditto - very happy to have been proven right and delighted with and for Mr Duff and his Team of battlers. Cannot see any threat of relegation now - apart from the mathematical risk, and fully expect CTFC to achieve a most respectable end to the season.
Ben3
Posts: 885
Joined: 12 Sep 2018, 07:08
Well, with 4 of the next six looking very winnable I’d suggest a top half finish (8-12th as I predicted before start of the season) is realistic.

Dependent on keeping people fit, of course, especially the current back three plus long and mullins
Robin
Posts: 15948
Joined: 20 Nov 2009, 11:19
Looking at the remaining twelve games there are four clear home games we should be looking to win Swindon, Oldham (who both won't have anything to play for at that point) and Notts/Cobblers. Nine points from those and a couple of wins elsewhere should see us at least equal 17th.

Next weeks games look interesting both Cambridge and Macclesfield have very tough away trips and it's Notts County V Port Vale and Yeovil V Morecambe in two massive relegation six pointers.
RegencyCheltenhamSpa
Posts: 29758
Joined: 21 Nov 2009, 03:27
We are safe.
Robin
Posts: 15948
Joined: 20 Nov 2009, 11:19
Realistically yes but the doom sayers keep banging on about it. No doubt should we lose on Saturday they will be digging out the maps to Salford and Aldershot again.
Johnsons Red Army
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Joined: 27 Dec 2015, 14:19
Location: Stroud
https://www.oddschecker.com/football/en ... relegation" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

33/1 now top price for us to go down. In other words, no chance.
Robin
Posts: 15948
Joined: 20 Nov 2009, 11:19
I see in that link the bookies are offering 1000-1 on Accrington, some great value to be had there:-)
MSB
Posts: 134
Joined: 10 Aug 2014, 15:26
I think the best thing is that I for one am attending home games expecting to not lose. It's been a while since I've felt that way.
Robin
Posts: 15948
Joined: 20 Nov 2009, 11:19
Yes I am the same apart from when the top teams come which is how it should be for any team that has aspirations beyond struggling.
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