Some thoughts on the 2-0 win over Cambridge United

Jon Palmer · 20 Feb 2019, 11:19

Can be read here: http://bit.ly/5ThingsCambridgeHome" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Nesty · 20 Feb 2019, 12:40

another 3 points. well done MD and the lads. another 13 games in which to get 11 or so points. another couple of 6 pointers coming up,

Artemis · 20 Feb 2019, 17:15

Looking at the state of play at the bottom, I think it'll be 46 points needed this season. 2 more wins, 2 draws will be enough. (Jeez, I really hope this doesn't come back to haunt me)

20 Feb 2019, 17:36

I think someone said the cut off is usually 45 or so points so that looks realistic to me. At this point it's probably any team from Northampton down but I do feel it would take a big collapse for ourselves, Crawley and Cobblers to end up relegated.

If I were a betting man I'd say it's very likely to be two from the bottom three with Yeovil looking the most likely. Amazing in hindsight to think the Glovers made a good start and were talking about the play offs earlier in the season, kind of reminiscent of our relegation season where early results glossed over bigger problems.

Nesty · 20 Feb 2019, 17:48

Saturdays fixtures look interesting and if they all and up in our favour could be another massive step towards survival

20 Feb 2019, 23:25

Are you genuinely worried about survival Nesty? I can't say I've realistically thought we'd be relegated for several months now. I don't disagree that it's possible but it remains unlikely in the bigger scheme of things.

Nesty · 21 Feb 2019, 09:41

not as worried as I was a month or two ago, but anything is still possible. I wont stop contemplating relegation until we are mathematically safe

Red Duke · 21 Feb 2019, 10:59

If the performances at Colchester and Grimsby had been followed up by a home defeat to Cambridge, then I would have been very concerned that all the apparent progress under MD was just an illusion and that we were back to where we were at the start of the season.

The key to our survival is that we are not losing to our relegation rivals and if we keep that up then midtable obscurity beckons.

RegencyCheltenhamSpa · 21 Feb 2019, 11:18

Red Duke wrote:If the performances at Colchester and Grimsby had been followed up by a home defeat to Cambridge, then I would have been very concerned that all the apparent progress under MD was just an illusion and that we were back to where we were at the start of the season.

The key to our survival is that we are not losing to our relegation rivals and if we keep that up then midtable obscurity beckons.

Worth noting then that in the four games we played against current bottom nine sides before Duff took over we lost (1-0 home to Crawley), drew 1-1 away at Macc and won away at Cambridge and Northampton, so 2 wins, 1 defeat and a draw. So far, from games against three of those four under Duff we have 2 wins and 1 defeat. So not much has changed there.

21 Feb 2019, 11:43

Yet James Young was telling everyone on recent radio commentary that our form under Duff has been mid-table so something doesn't really add up. The best we can hope for now in my opinion is sixteenth place finish and a slight improvement on last year. Of course that tells it's own story because this year we were in our around the relegation battle for a large chunk whilst last season we sat in mid-table before an end of season slump. Overall some slow and steady progress has been made but big improvements are needed in the summer in order to get us back on track.

leohoenig · 21 Feb 2019, 12:39

Wiki shows Duff's managerial record as 11 wins, 10 draws ad 12 defeats, which is very much mid-table
I think that includes cup matches, and cannot be bothered to check more detail

RegencyCheltenhamSpa · 21 Feb 2019, 13:38

leohoenig wrote:Wiki shows Duff's managerial record as 11 wins, 10 draws and 12 defeats, which is very much mid-table
I think that includes cup matches, and cannot be bothered to check more detail

It must include cups as we have only played 33 league games, and your numbers add up to 33 games.

Duff has managed 26 of those games.

We have 10 league wins in total. Take off two for Russ and that leaves Duff with 8 wins.

We have 8 league draws in total. Take off one for Gary and that leaves 7 draws for Duff.

We have 15 league defeats. Three for Gary and one for Russ. So 11 for Duff.

26 games, 8 wins, 7 draws, 11 wins.

1.192 points per game. Had we been on the same form as Duff’s 26 games for all 33 games, we would have 1 point more and one place higher.

Over a 46 game season this would be 54.8 points. This is 3.8 points more than last season, and we still would have finished in the same place on 17th or 16th.