Have we passed peak Brexit?

[RegencyCheltenhamSpa]

Anyone who is familiar with referenda over the years will know they all follow the same pattern: the insurgient campaign surges in the polls, and once they dip in the polls they only keep dipping.

I believe it was a Dutch University who analysed data to identify the trend of 'peak' support.

Most recently we have seen Peak Independence about a week or two before the Scottish vote.

With the rise in Brexit support now starting to recede we could have reached Peak Brexit already. With a month still to go that is a long way out to burst if true.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05 ... deserting/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[confused.com]

Question, if Mr Cameron says the IFS are the gold standard. How come they are not nearly as pessimistic as the treasury and the IMF

[Malabus]

Good and valid point, confused.com.
The stayers have the global elite on their side and they have been creating this reality for 10,000 years and their aim is a one world order - global control.

Voting IN will give them more power.

#VoteLeave vote freedom.

[RegencyCheltenhamSpa]

Question, if Mr Cameron says the IFS are the gold standard. How come they are not nearly as pessimistic as the treasury and the IMF

Because the Treasury and IMF are both part of the Renain agenda so exaggerate the risk.

The IFS is the only body I will give any credence to in this debate. They have been critical of almost all of the last six years of austerity and have a track record of holding governments of any hue to account. The IFS is very much independent and certainly not in the pay of Remain.

They would have crunched the metrics I listed in the other thread and modelled in short term shocks (public finances and current acount) and any potential medium to long term impacts (+ or - ).

Whilst probably the most realistic estimate we will get, forecasting by them is as much guesswork as it is by anyone else (who are independent).

[confused.com]

Question, if Mr Cameron says the IFS are the gold standard. How come they are not nearly as pessimistic as the treasury and the IMF

Because the Treasury and IMF are both part of the Renain agenda so exaggerate the risk.

The IFS is the only body I will give any credence to in this debate. They have been critical of almost all of the last six years of austerity and have a track record of holding governments of any hue to account. The IFS is very much independent and certainly not in the pay of Remain.

They would have crunched the metrics I listed in the other thread and modelled in short term shocks (public finances and current acount) and any potential medium to long term impacts (+ or - ).

Whilst probably the most realistic estimate we will get, forecasting by them is as much guesswork as it is by anyone else (who are independent).

Indeed, so we can expect Cameron and Ozzy to come out and agree the others have got it wrong ?
Like yourself I appreciated the candour of the IFS report and if the cost to us leaving the EU is going to be £40 billion over two years, then I personally no longer see the economic argument for remaining a compelling one. As the IFS said, it is up to us to decide if we think that is a fair price for escaping the unknown future of the EU.
On a different but related point, I note the extradition of a UK woman from Australia because she has fallen foul of their new law that anyone with a prison sentence of over a year, is to be deported back to their own country. Totally understandable, and totally would never be allowed here while in the EU.

[RegencyCheltenhamSpa]

Question, if Mr Cameron says the IFS are the gold standard. How come they are not nearly as pessimistic as the treasury and the IMF

Because the Treasury and IMF are both part of the Renain agenda so exaggerate the risk.

The IFS is the only body I will give any credence to in this debate. They have been critical of almost all of the last six years of austerity and have a track record of holding governments of any hue to account. The IFS is very much independent and certainly not in the pay of Remain.

They would have crunched the metrics I listed in the other thread and modelled in short term shocks (public finances and current acount) and any potential medium to long term impacts (+ or - ).

Whilst probably the most realistic estimate we will get, forecasting by them is as much guesswork as it is by anyone else (who are independent).

Indeed, so we can expect Cameron and Ozzy to come out and agree the others have got it wrong ?

Of course not. Same way we can't expect Gove/Boris to come out and admit where they have got things wrong or exaggerated things.

[kora]

The IFS has total credibility and their predictions are respected by all political shades. Most of the Brexit leaders had the sense to keep quiet as any comment would have made them look a little foolish; then up to the mike steps Farage. The man really is a f#!$ and has damaged his own credibility with this one. Nice one Nige, keep it up.

[Malabus]

WHY IS IT JUST ABOUT ECONOMICS.
It's about freedom; protection of our borders and our own sovereignty.
The financial scare mongering is ludicrous.
We are a wealthy nation, we will prosper.

[RegencyCheltenhamSpa]

It's about freedom; protection of our borders and our own sovereignty.

Please define these concepts - what does freedom and sovereignty mean in the 21st century?

Protect our borders from whom?

[Malabus]

Protect our borders from whom?

OMG!!!!

Immigration out of CONTROL.

I will say again...

Immigration is out if control.

Should I say it a third time....

Net migration to UK rises to 333,000 - second highest on record
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-e ... m-36382199" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[confused.com]

The IFS has total credibility and their predictions are respected by all political shades. Most of the Brexit leaders had the sense to keep quiet as any comment would have made them look a little foolish; then up to the mike steps Farage. The man really is a f#!$ and has damaged his own credibility with this one. Nice one Nige, keep it up.

Agree on that one. However you can't stand by the IFS scenario and also be saying the Treasury have got it right.
If I was Farage I would have jumped on the fact the bill to leave is £40 billion. Which over many many years, is a drop in the ocean. If those that say remain agree with this, which they seem to be saying they do. Then the voter is left with a simple choice. That being, the difference between staying and leaving is a one of hit of £40 billion over two years. After that, we are all OK

[RegencyCheltenhamSpa]

Protect our borders from whom?

OMG!!!!

Immigration out of CONTROL.

I will say again...

Immigration is out if control.

Should I say it a third time....

Net migration to UK rises to 333,000 - second highest on record
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-e ... m-36382199" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Of which "ONS figures estimate that net migration for EU citizens was 184,000" and in fact just a 6,000 increase to "270,000 EU citizens moved to the UK for at least a year in 2015, up from 264,000 in 2014".

Interestingly, "the rise in the net figure was the result of a fall in the numbers of people emigrating".

Anyway, as much as it is not 'just about economics' it is not just about immigration.

Please answer my question: Please define these concepts - what does freedom and sovereignty mean in the 21st century?

[RegencyCheltenhamSpa]

The IFS has total credibility and their predictions are respected by all political shades. Most of the Brexit leaders had the sense to keep quiet as any comment would have made them look a little foolish; then up to the mike steps Farage. The man really is a f#!$ and has damaged his own credibility with this one. Nice one Nige, keep it up.

Agree on that one. However you can't stand by the IFS scenario and also be saying the Treasury have got it right.
If I was Farage I would have jumped on the fact the bill to leave is £40 billion. Which over many many years, is a drop in the ocean. If those that say remain agree with this, which they seem to be saying they do. Then the voter is left with a simple choice. That being, the difference between staying and leaving is a one of hit of £40 billion over two years. After that, we are all OK

Rather, after two years we enter an unknown.

Which as we have said before is the crux of the matter. It is an unknown, so it will be a vote of the gut and depends on the risk aversion and ambition of individual voters.

[confused.com]

The IFS has total credibility and their predictions are respected by all political shades. Most of the Brexit leaders had the sense to keep quiet as any comment would have made them look a little foolish; then up to the mike steps Farage. The man really is a f#!$ and has damaged his own credibility with this one. Nice one Nige, keep it up.

Agree on that one. However you can't stand by the IFS scenario and also be saying the Treasury have got it right.
If I was Farage I would have jumped on the fact the bill to leave is £40 billion. Which over many many years, is a drop in the ocean. If those that say remain agree with this, which they seem to be saying they do. Then the voter is left with a simple choice. That being, the difference between staying and leaving is a one of hit of £40 billion over two years. After that, we are all OK

Rather, after two years we enter an unknown.

Which as we have said before is the crux of the matter. It is an unknown, so it will be a vote of the gut and depends on the risk aversion and ambition of individual voters.

True - as great an unknown as what the EU will materialise to be

[confused.com]

It's about freedom; protection of our borders and our own sovereignty.

Please define these concepts - what does freedom and sovereignty mean in the 21st century?

Protect our borders from whom?

AT LAST THE CHANCE !!!!!

Son, we live in a world that has walls, and those walls have to be guarded by men with guns. Who's gonna do it? You? ............ You don't want the truth because deep down in places you don't talk about at parties, you want me on that wall, you need me on that wall. We use words like honor, code, loyalty. We use these words as the backbone of a life spent defending something. You use them as a punchline. I have neither the time nor the inclination to explain myself to a man who rises and sleeps under the blanket of the very freedom that I provide, and then questions the manner in which I provide it. I would rather you just said thank you, and went on your way, Otherwise, I suggest you pick up a weapon, and stand a post. Either way, I don't give a damn what you think you are entitled to.

[RegencyCheltenhamSpa]

True - as great an unknown as what the EU will materialise to be

Indeed, as I said, for this referendum the crux of the matter is that is an unknown, so it will be a vote of the gut and depends on the risk aversion and ambition of individual voters.

[RegencyCheltenhamSpa]

AT LAST THE CHANCE !!!!!

Son, we live in a world that has walls, and those walls have to be guarded by men with guns. Who's gonna do it? You? ............ You don't want the truth because deep down in places you don't talk about at parties, you want me on that wall, you need me on that wall. We use words like honor, code, loyalty. We use these words as the backbone of a life spent defending something. You use them as a punchline. I have neither the time nor the inclination to explain myself to a man who rises and sleeps under the blanket of the very freedom that I provide, and then questions the manner in which I provide it. I would rather you just said thank you, and went on your way, Otherwise, I suggest you pick up a weapon, and stand a post. Either way, I don't give a damn what you think you are entitled to.

A few good men on this forum indeed.

As for being on the wall myself - I'd absolutely love to be hired by MI 5 or 6 and do my bit with lies and sniper rifles.

And as for the debate, I'm neither pro or anti Brexit and have no desire to tell people how to vote or think. Just trying to encourage Mal to move away from banal one line sound bites and actually write something with a bit more depth, which you are doing which is good to see.