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 Post subject: I want to bang my head on the wall till my head explodes
 Post Posted: 13 Jan 2017, 10:40 
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https://www.rt.com/news/373522-syria-ar ... ed-israel/


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 Post subject: Re: I want to bang my head on the wall till my head explodes
 Post Posted: 13 Jan 2017, 13:46 
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Nah, too easy....


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 Post subject: Re: I want to bang my head on the wall till my head explodes
 Post Posted: 13 Jan 2017, 14:02 
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Malabus wrote:
https://www.rt.com/news/373522-syria-army-base-bombed-israel/

Yeah, the last time they picked a fight with Israel, it turned out so well for them


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 Post subject: Re: I want to bang my head on the wall till my head explodes
 Post Posted: 13 Jan 2017, 14:38 
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As a strategic play by Putin and Assad, this is great and spectacular.

Trump is over an oil barrel with an AK-47 and Quran prodding on his sizeable buttocks.

Let's analyse it piece by piece:

Piece 1:
Trump has been positive towards Putin.
Trump has expressed a desire to get rid of ISIS and extremism.
Ergo, Trump would be tempted to not criticise, and may even support, a response by Assad-Putin against attack from external countries.

Piece 2:
The attack, on Hezbollah, has come from Israel.
In the USA, to stop support for Israel is political suicide.
Letting Assad-Putin start a war with Israel would be beyond the pale for the USA government and electorate.

Piece 3:
Iran want 'Israel obliterated from the map'
Iran are one of the biggest allies of the Assad-Putin powers, militarily, financially and strategically.
Iran will join in, or at worst support, an offensive against Israel.

Piece 4:
We have no reason to doubt the top former-MI6 man's dossier on Trump
And the Russian cyber attacks on the USA are well known
Ergo, Putin has 'material' on Trump

Conclusion:
EITHER, Trump is forced by USA convention to side with Israel against Assad-Putin and Iran, risking war with Russia (Putin's end-game) and 'exposure' of the 'material' the Russians hold,
OR, Trump maintains his cosiness with Putin, and becomes the first - and likely last - USA President to tacitly support an offensive by Iran and Syria against Israel.

Whichever option, this is a masterstroke by Assad-Putin. Maybe not check-mate, but certainly a move which will take great care and cleverness to counter. Given the (dis)ability of Trump and his appointed cronies, and his disdain/distrust of the US military and intelligence services, care and cleverness may not be very forthcoming.

One can only hope some of our chaps out there in the World are wiring back intel to Cheltenham as we speak, and somewhere deep in the Doughnut and Vauxhall Cross plans and decisions are being formed.


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 Post subject: Re: I want to bang my head on the wall till my head explodes
 Post Posted: 13 Jan 2017, 16:56 
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Will read and digest before responding, however re point 4. It could also be argued hat there is no reason to believe it. Don't let the target guide your response


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 Post subject: Re: I want to bang my head on the wall till my head explodes
 Post Posted: 13 Jan 2017, 16:59 
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confused.com wrote:
Will read and digest before responding, however re point 4. It could also be argued hat there is no reason to believe it. Don't let the target guide your response


Ok, ignore Piece 4; 1-3 are damaging enough.


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 Post subject: Re: I want to bang my head on the wall till my head explodes
 Post Posted: 13 Jan 2017, 17:31 
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That report is entirely based on the Syrian state and , given their flagrant abuse of the truth in their civil war, I would take with a pinch of salt. A lot easier for them to claim that Israel had attacked, rather than'rebels' breaching their security. Also, in the report it starts out as an air strike them becomes missisles from a lake area.


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 Post subject: Re: I want to bang my head on the wall till my head explodes
 Post Posted: 13 Jan 2017, 17:51 
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confused.com wrote:
That report is entirely based on the Syrian state and , given their flagrant abuse of the truth in their civil war, I would take with a pinch of salt. A lot easier for them to claim that Israel had attacked, rather than'rebels' breaching their security. Also, in the report it starts out as an air strike them becomes missisles from a lake area.


Indeed, the report may be fake. Oldest trick in the book - say your enemy (a Polish soldier?) attacked first before you launch your offensive. This is exactly the play I was describing above.

It matters not whether the Israelis did send the missiles in or not; once Assad, backed by Putin and Iran attacks (either with rhetoric, or force) Israel, my analysis plays out and Trump is in a tough spot.


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 Post subject: Re: I want to bang my head on the wall till my head explodes
 Post Posted: 13 Jan 2017, 23:46 
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That is true, but I refuse to believe anyone, not even Putin, would pick a fight with Israel. The one country that would not hesitate in defending itself in any way required. He tends to choose his battles with those he knows can not fight back


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 Post subject: Re: I want to bang my head on the wall till my head explodes
 Post Posted: 14 Jan 2017, 01:17 
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confused.com wrote:
That is true, but I refuse to believe anyone, not even Putin, would pick a fight with Israel. The one country that would not hesitate in defending itself in any way required. He tends to choose his battles with those he knows can not fight back


Assad has little to loae. A failed leader in a failed state who most nations now view as a worse tyrant than Saddam

Plus, if Assad does go in against Israel, what then for ISIS and other rebels? Surely ISIS would not want to help Israel by continuing to fight Assad. By bringing the Israeli might onto Syrian soil, Assad could have them destroy ISIS and also galvanise support from Arab nations who oppose him, like the Saudi Arabia. Surely the Saudis would not continue their support for the Syrian rebels if that meant strengthening the Israelis position.

An enemy of my enemy, a friend of my friend, a friend of my enemy and an enemy of my friend.

Who knows if a war will materialise or if we will even get as far as brinkmanship. Bloody fascinating geopolitics and international relations though, and looks like 2017 could be another shocker.


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 Post subject: Re: I want to bang my head on the wall till my head explodes
 Post Posted: 14 Jan 2017, 08:38 
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Don't disagree that he ia a failed nut job. However a nut job who values his own life, even if not that of others. The memory of the Arab states last attempt to remove Israel from the face of the earth and even to this day are trying to get back the land they lost in that attempt. So despite all the points you raise and despite the scenarios you outline. I still think an attack / war on Israel has not happened and will not happen for the simple reason that if you put them in sutvival mode, their DNA is such that they will take you down with them


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