How long....

[RegencyCheltenhamSpa]

Where do I start?
To kick off the keep voting until we get something we like, is and was not a snide remark. It is a tactic employed by Euro leaning bodies over many years. Wear the people down until they are past caring anymore. Not the greatest advertisement for democracy?

Re the go back and negotiate may see us never leave. That I believe is the exact same position as the deal brokered by Mrs May. There is no definite way of bringing about leaving.

So if Remain got 55% of the vote and Leave 45%. The that would legitimise ignoring the will of the 45%? Sits oddly with the view that we should attempt to reach a deal which can also appeal to the current 48%. Am I to take it then that it is your view if leave had polled 55% in 2016, then all of this would be a side show, as there would be a mandate to just leave whatever?

Peoples Vote – I thought we had already had one of those. Not to mention that in the GE, both major parties stood for election on a Brexit ticket, exactly how much of a mandate are you after? The fact that the reversing lights are on, is more a reflection of the standard of those elected, than the views of the electorate ?

The Government says this is the best deal possible – If the last few weeks and subsequent pulling of today’s vote, proves nothing else, it makes that statement very debateable. A section of the Government thinks it is the best deal possible. Among those is the likes of Mr Gove, who has more faces than anyone I have ever come across and doesn’t even need as much as 30 pieces of silver.

Slogans on a bus, project fear etc etc etc. Nobody came out of 2016 with a clean bill of health and firmly believe that the attitude of some of us who voted remain, towards those that voted leave. Has done just as much damage to the ever growing split in this country. The left leaning quickly point to Mr Farage, however the branding and continued branding of anyone who voted leave as either racist or just to stupid to know what they were voting for, is just as demeaning. As I commented, people voting remain, were, I guess, saying happy with things as they are now. Did that mean they then thought 20 years down the road and what the EU may well develop in to and still said yeah am all for that? Doubt it.

The house of Parliament can not vote down a no deal, unless the Government offers them that option. There is no sound or idea of that happening. The motion passed last week re MP’s having more say, is just that, a motion. It can not be enforced.

GE – I would find it an absolute corruption of a GE if each MP was to be elected due to their views on Brexit! My MP is in Parliament for so so many reasons, I want a good MP, not one who is rubbish but happens to hold the same views on Brexit as I do.

My view on a way forward – The main sticking point of this deal would appear to be the backstop and its indefinite term. A simple solution would be to have a finite duration. If the good will is as good on both sides as we are always told, then setting a deadline will only aid to get to a conclusion sooner. I believe that if the deal was brought back with an end date to the backstop (the alternative at the end of that date was an understood and agreed no deal). Then Parliament would be given a viable option that all parties could unite behind. OK it may still disgruntle some. However after listening to the commons day after day, hour after hour. It does appear that the term ‘backstop’ is thrown up as the reason for the rejection. We seem to be dancing to the tune of the UK having to do something to stop the RoI from erecting a hard border? Why then is the onus on the UK to have to be tied in to an institution that the referendum wanted to leave, all in the name of stopping the RoI from creating a border. UK government has made it clear, they will not be creating any hard border. Or have I got that bit wrong.
The sudden interest and expertise of so any MP’s in all things NI is amazing to watch. There sudden interest in the GFA and their clinging to it as a way to prevent Brexit. Even Sinn Fein do not thing a hard border would see a return to violence. For obvious reasons they don’t want one, but they are not peddling the violence agenda like some are. Seems the RoI and EU seem to have also steam rollered the GFA in so far as it is documented and agreed in it that all things covering the EU and RoI can not be agreed by Houses of parliament, only from the Assembly in NI. The fact that is not sitting is largely irrelevant, as we are now being constantly reminded that it is the legal text that matters.
In short, I don’t believe that just because a few Civil Servants have negotiated the first deal in their lives, that it is then the best deal, EU is used to negotiating trade deals etc and are not going to blink unless they have to. We need to get to the position that they have to. Because the treatment and attitude handed out by the EU, now makes me believe we should be best out of it. I believed if they had given a bit to Cameron, none of this would have happened.
Business needs certainty I constantly hear, no matter what than certainty is. In that case this deal does not deliver that. The ports up the east coast of UK are relishing a no deal, as a greater share of the shipping will head that way. There are ways to soften a no deal. Nobody thinks its the ideal, but both sides in negotiation must realise it is the other option from not making the backstop time limited.

As for Parliament voting against No Deal, that is exactly what the Grieve amendment, accepted by the Brexit Minister today, allows them to do.

[Ihearye]

Apologies it is here I must disagree with you and the Con chap. The Grieve ‘amendment’ as it was voted for. Is as such motions are, not legally binding on any Government. They can choose to ignore if they so want

[asl]

The Grieve ‘amendment’ as it was voted for. Is as such motions are, not legally binding on any Government. They can choose to ignore if they so want

I've heard the same said about the 2016 referendum...

[RegencyCheltenhamSpa]

And the Benn amendment, which would rule out no deal completely, yet to be voted on.

There is not a majority in the house for no deal. It won’t happen unless that is instruction from a People’s Vote.

[Johnsons Red Army]

"ERG sources 'confident' 48 letters now reached


Beth Rigby

Confidence vote watch. I know it’s a dangerous game to play and Sir Graham is keeper of the list. But my ERG sources pretty confident now that 48 trigger been breached. Of course Sir Graham won’t announce while PM out of country - and we’ve been here before. But mood hardening

200
3:58 PM - Dec 11, 2018" - Twitter


Confidence vote imminent?

When it was discussed two or so weeks ago, the general consensus was that May would win any confidence vote in her by her Tory MPs. I wonder if that still remains the case.

[Johnsons Red Army]

My view on a way forward – The main sticking point of this deal would appear to be the backstop and its indefinite term. A simple solution would be to have a finite duration.

With regards to the above (from one of Ihearye's earlier posts), I believe this is what the UK were attempting during the negotiations, i.e. a time-limited backstop, but the EU doesn't want a time limit on it.

So I don't believe that can be or will be the way forward if the EU has previously rejected this idea.

[RegencyCheltenhamSpa]

"ERG sources 'confident' 48 letters now reached


Beth Rigby

Confidence vote watch. I know it’s a dangerous game to play and Sir Graham is keeper of the list. But my ERG sources pretty confident now that 48 trigger been breached. Of course Sir Graham won’t announce while PM out of country - and we’ve been here before. But mood hardening

200
3:58 PM - Dec 11, 2018" - Twitter


Confidence vote imminent?

When it was discussed two or so weeks ago, the general consensus was that May would win any confidence vote in her by her Tory MPs. I wonder if that still remains the case.

Haven’t the ERG been claiming they were close for six months?

Also, it is a good tactical move. Other parties have been calling for Labour to call a no confidence motion but Corbyn is refusing as they don’t think they will win it currently (aka Corbyn doesn’t want a People’s Vote). So ERG know this and can pre-empt Labour and force a leadership change before Labour press for a GE.

[Malabus]

"ERG sources 'confident' 48 letters now reached


Beth Rigby

Confidence vote watch. I know it’s a dangerous game to play and Sir Graham is keeper of the list. But my ERG sources pretty confident now that 48 trigger been breached. Of course Sir Graham won’t announce while PM out of country - and we’ve been here before. But mood hardening

200
3:58 PM - Dec 11, 2018" - Twitter


Confidence vote imminent?

When it was discussed two or so weeks ago, the general consensus was that May would win any confidence vote in her by her Tory MPs. I wonder if that still remains the case.

Interesting.

[RegencyCheltenhamSpa]

Maybe she’ll be gone before she lands after her non-productive begging bowl tour around Western Europe today after which she has announced once again her deal is the best deal.

One way or another just get it over with.

[Ihearye]

The Grieve ‘amendment’ as it was voted for. Is as such motions are, not legally binding on any Government. They can choose to ignore if they so want

I've heard the same said about the 2016 referendum...

where did yiu hear that ?

[asl]

I realise Wiki isn't always reliable, but: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Referen ... ed_Kingdom" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[asl]

And https://fullfact.org/europe/was-eu-referendum-advisory/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[RegencyCheltenhamSpa]

The Grieve ‘amendment’ as it was voted for. Is as such motions are, not legally binding on any Government. They can choose to ignore if they so want

I've heard the same said about the 2016 referendum...

where did yiu hear that ?

Are you being serious? I thought it was common knowledge the referendum was purely advisory and Parliament under no obligation to act upon on. Cameron promised they would act but that is as far as it got.

Not meaning to be patronising at all however I am very surprised that someone with as many thought through and coherent arguments on the matter wasn’t aware of this fundamental fact!

[Ihearye]

The result is indeed legally binding. Because the government brought in legiation to make it so. Exactly the same position as the Grieve amendment. It has no legal standing unless the government decide to afford it such. The very point of my argument

[Ihearye]

JRA that has been the problem throughout, well actually two of them. Mrs May has allowed the Irish norder issue to become an issue. When in fact it is a figment of LV imagination. In ireland, the previous hesdf EK saw no such problem. As fir EU saying it can't happen, we just accept that and thus a deal that was well advertised would not be acceptable. Just plain stupid. She can't be trusted and has to go. Too many promises broken.

[RegencyCheltenhamSpa]

48! It’s there! Brady calls for her head!

Leadership Challenge is go!

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46535739" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[Johnsons Red Army]

Yep, confidence vote tonight between 6 and 8pm.

[Johnsons Red Army]

Full statement from Sir Graham Brady

The chairman of the backbench 1922 committee of Conservative MPs said: "The threshold of 15% of the parliamentary party seeking a vote of confidence in the leader of the Conservative Party has been exceeded.

"In accordance with the rules, a ballot will be held between 1800 and 2000 on Wednesday 12th December in committee room 14 of the House of Commons.

"The votes will be counted immediately afterwards and an announcement will be made as soon as possible in the evening.

"Arrangements for the announcement will be released later today.

"I will be available to answer questions about this process on Abingdon Green from 0800 hrs."

[Johnsons Red Army]

So will she stay or go?

My prediction is she will win the vote tonight.

[RegencyCheltenhamSpa]

Might be a close vote but I personally think she’ll survive. Too many Conservative MPs will be against any form of ERG-backed leader and will not want that risk. Plus they know if May survives it weakens Labour’s hand in terms of tabling a no confidence motion this, or next month.

Of course, some may see it is a chance to take on the ERG in a leadership battle, hoping to defeat them and shut them up, but I don’t think many will and the anti-ERG consensus will prevail to keep May in power.

BUT: Whilst some have asked if she will quit even if she wins but with a small majority, she has been adamant she would only go if she loses outright. Given she was adamant she would not call a general election and adamant that yesterday’s vote would proceed, there is every chance she wins the vote but still calls it a day. That would be a symbolic way to go for a tenure that will be remembered for being adamant about something right up to the point of doing the opposite.

[Ihearye]

Hard to see any one figure that the Cons could unite behind, so she may well still be there at Christmas. What happens once she loses the vote in January is another story
She said she would stay on and fight even if she only won by one vote. However, her word is not worth the paper it is printed on. She has made promises all down the line, which she has backed away from. So Lord knows if she will resign or face it out.
Get rid and go back to the Trade agreement offered by EU in March. Why she persisted with HER Chequers deal when it was clear from Day 1 it wouldn’t pass the Commons (without getting major support from labour). Like them or loathe them, there is one things politicians in NI know all about and that is negotiating and not crossing red lines. Given they had a lot of support in their views within the Commons, just how did she think this was ever going to work

[RegencyCheltenhamSpa]

Of course even if removed as leader she will still be PM until leadership contest complete. Wonder if she’d think about cancelling Brexit just to p!ss off the ERG who forced her out!

[Ihearye]

I think when you see the names now lining up against her, it has gone beyond the harder elements of the ERG. The problem is, she has run with parts of a deal. That she knew could not get the support of her own party, let alone the Commons

[RegencyCheltenhamSpa]

The Tories are conducting their second referendum on Mrs May’s leadership of the Conservative party. A lot of new facts & issues have emerged since the first referendum two years ago & the voters want a chance to change their mind.

[Malabus]

To save a rightful hard brexit she has to go. I feel sadly she will be safe.

[Johnsons Red Army]

Nobody, except for the right-wing extremists, wants a hard-Brexit.

The like-minded ERG group will find that out this evening once the votes have been counted. Hopefully that will be the final nail in the coffin of the idea of a hard-Brexit!

[RegencyCheltenhamSpa]

Nobody, except for the right-wing extremists, wants a hard-Brexit.

The like-minded ERG group will find that out the evening once the votes have been counted. Hopefully that will be the final nail in the coffin of the idea of a hard-Brexit!

We don’t know what type of Brexit is preferred by the electorate until the People’s Vote. If May defeats the ERG tonight, then a People’s Vote is their best chance of a No Deal exit imo.

[Malabus]

Nobody, except for the right-wing extremists, wants a hard-Brexit.

Utter nonsense, you have no idea what you are talking about.

How is wishing having a great great distance away from the EU right wing?

The EU are what the third reich left off. Can’t you see this!!!

[Johnsons Red Army]

Nobody, except for the right-wing extremists, wants a hard-Brexit.

Utter nonsense, you have no idea what you are talking about.

How is wishing having a great great distance away from the EU right wing?

The EU are what the third reich left off. Can’t you see this!!!

Wishing to ruin the economy just so the racists (right-wing extremists) don't have to put up with as many foreigners here = one example of the right-wing extremism I was mentioning.

The economic modelling, released from the government and the Bank of England, has already shown that a hard-Brexit would f#!$ us up economically, quite severely.

But oh well, at least there will be less Polish people taking our jobs, right ?

[Johnsons Red Army]

Nobody, except for the right-wing extremists, wants a hard-Brexit.

The like-minded ERG group will find that out the evening once the votes have been counted. Hopefully that will be the final nail in the coffin of the idea of a hard-Brexit!

We don’t know what type of Brexit is preferred by the electorate until the People’s Vote. If May defeats the ERG tonight, then a People’s Vote is their best chance of a No Deal exit imo.

True. I just find it extremely hard to believe that the majority of the electorate are like-minded with Mal's views. Thankfully, I believe he is in the minority.

I do agree that we should have a second vote to sort it out though, as the government has currently proved incapable of doing so.

[Malabus]

Nobody, except for the right-wing extremists, wants a hard-Brexit.

Utter nonsense, you have no idea what you are talking about.

How is wishing having a great great distance away from the EU right wing?

The EU are what the third reich left off. Can’t you see this!!!

Wishing to ruin the economy just so the racists (right-wing extremists) don't have to put up with as many foreigners here = one example of the right-wing extremism I was mentioning.

The economic modelling, released from the government and the Bank of England, has already shown that a hard-Brexit would f#!$ us up economically, quite severely.

But oh well, at least there will be less Polish people taking our jobs, right ?

This is why I’m in great favour of having a IQ test before you join this public forum.

You are an idiot.

[Johnsons Red Army]

This is why I’m in great favour of having a IQ test before you join this public forum.

You are an idiot.

If I really gave a s#!t what you thought, I could easily trawl through "NON-FOOTY" and dig out numerous examples of your bigoted/racist views, but like I said, I don't really give enough shits to do so.

Same with your views on a flat earth.

And I'm the idiot?

Dream on!

You are either a WUM or one really ill and deluded individual that should seek mental help ASAP.

[Malabus]

This is why I’m in great favour of having a IQ test before you join this public forum.

You are an idiot.

If I really gave a s#!t what you thought, I could easily trawl through "NON-FOOTY" and dig out numerous examples of your bigoted/racist views, but like I said, I don't really give enough shits to do so.

Same with your views on a flat earth.

And I'm the idiot?

Dream on!

You are either a WUM or one really ill and deluded individual that should seek mental help ASAP.

Stop sniffing the glue.

[RegencyCheltenhamSpa]

This is why I’m in great favour of having a IQ test before you join this public forum.

You are an idiot.

If I really gave a s#!t what you thought, I could easily trawl through "NON-FOOTY" and dig out numerous examples of your bigoted/racist views, but like I said, I don't really give enough shits to do so.

Same with your views on a flat earth.

And I'm the idiot?

Dream on!

You are either a WUM or one really ill and deluded individual that should seek mental help ASAP.

Stop sniffing the glue.

Says the Flat Earther racist Buddist who thinks we are controlled by lizards and that the moon landing and holocaust never happened.

Jog on wum.

[Johnsons Red Army]

https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/br ... sa-may-win" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Bookies think she is a certainty to prevail tonight.

Sky News have been tracking those who have come out in support of the PM and claim that the number to win has already been met (obviously they will need to vote that way as well to confirm it but looking extremely likely May will win the vote).