I tried to analyse how the restart of football (and sport generally) could happen, for another forum
These were my thoughts:
As I see it, football can be divided into four types. From bottom up
1) Grass roots - anything below Step 7, and many of the Step 7 Leagues
2) Semi-professional - some Step 7, and almost all clubs at Steps 2-6
3) Professional - Step 1 to either League-1 or Championship
4) Elite - Premier League, and possibly Championship.
For Cheltenham fans unfamiliar with the "Steps" mentioned, Step 7 in our locality is the County League with the Northern Senior and Cheltenham Leagues below it. Step 2 is National League North/South (see Gloucester), Steps 3 and 4 are the Southern League and Steps 5 & 6 are the Hellenic League
Once some degree of the social isolation has been reversed, it should be possible for grass routes football to restart. The numbers watching are not important at this level, and the only problem if you were to say these games had to be played without a crowd is that many are on public parks where there is no way of keeping stray members of the public away. There is a good chance that these levels of football will start roughly at the normal times in August and September.
At the opposite end of the spectrum, Elite football depends more on TV revenue than on match day income. This is why the plan to restart the Premier League, and possibly the Championship can work. The matches can be played anytime, in front of the TV cameras. The League is now looking using only some grounds, and only neutral venues. All of this makes sense in this context.
Leagues 1&2 may chose to finish 2019/20 in the same way, in order to conclude the season and define promotion and relegation, but they are very dependent on match day income and so it may be best to then put these leagues into hibernation until it is clearly OK for the crowds to return.
Semi-professional football is in the same position as Leagues 1&2, they need the crowds (small as some may be) in order to operate. Many sponsors and benefactors may not be able to come back to subsidising this level for some time. The semi-professional leagues were halted by the FA and called null and void, (which basically means no promotion or relegation). Many clubs would probably like to complete 2019/20 at the restart - with whatever playing squads are available.
An example of this is the comments on a radio interview today with Wealdstone's Dean Brennan. I do agree with this, but I also accept one major point from the FA in their reasons for not postponing the season. This is that many contracts are to pay players until a date, (at semi-pro level normally the first Saturday in May), or until the final match of the season. Clubs have no problem therefore with extending the season for, say, FA Trophy or Vase finals - but they do not want to postpone the final game indefinately.
Incidentally, the FA have expressed the desire that the Vase and Trophy are played to completion. Is this at odds with the argument above?
While on the subject of contracts, and moving renadmly through arguments today. I saw a mention on the BBC about players contracts running out. They suggested that players could play for one club one week, and another a week later on a new contract. This, of course can quickly be solved. Players whose contracts run out can of course leave, and can also be offered a monthly extension to get the games played. But those that leave their clubs should not be able to register with anyone else. This is within the FA's power - all they have to do is say the transfer window is not open until the season ends, and hence no new registrations can be made.
My feeling is that elite football will start whenever it can, behind closed doors and that grassrots recreational football can restart sooner, But for the middle ranks of the game, we may have a prolonged wait before we can get back to something approaching normality
Can Cheltenham League restart before Football League
Moderators: Admin, Ralph, asl, Robin
Interesting read Leo, I have a feeling that it's all about concluding this season quickly for the lower leagues. At this point I am expecting the following:
1) Premiership and maybe Championship to resume behind closed doors in late June/early July but if players/managers get sick then the leagues to be finished on points per game. Note. this is dependent upon lockdown ending latter part of May.
2) Lower leagues to be finished on points per game (not sure what they do with promotion/play offs) and then to restart very late in the year when it's safe for crowds to return (probably any pre-season is behind closed doors).
3) Grass roots to start later in the year; August feels too soon as I suspect the exit from lockdown will be phased over a longer than anticipated period and social distancing in some forms will last several more months.
The real question for me is no longer how we conclude this season but how long until the next one can start and how clubs are to survive through those months.
1) Premiership and maybe Championship to resume behind closed doors in late June/early July but if players/managers get sick then the leagues to be finished on points per game. Note. this is dependent upon lockdown ending latter part of May.
2) Lower leagues to be finished on points per game (not sure what they do with promotion/play offs) and then to restart very late in the year when it's safe for crowds to return (probably any pre-season is behind closed doors).
3) Grass roots to start later in the year; August feels too soon as I suspect the exit from lockdown will be phased over a longer than anticipated period and social distancing in some forms will last several more months.
The real question for me is no longer how we conclude this season but how long until the next one can start and how clubs are to survive through those months.