To reach 50 points we need 49 points from 35 games.
This means an average of 1.4 points per game. We are close to needing to win every other game for the rest of the season.
That is the equivalent of 64 points in a 46 game season.
Last season we got 54 points and the season before 56 points.
So we have to out perform the last two seasons from here on in.
I remember posters on here called both our last two title winning promotions in October/ November; could be doing that for relegation now unless we pick up a couple of wins this month.
The Points Per Game Equation
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 Posts: 51
 Joined: 03 Nov 2022, 15:44
It isn't going to happen unfortunately, I am sure we will see improvements but this group is not good enough. Reinforcements will arrive, but the deficit is too much.
I am glad Darrell Clarke is in now and has some time to address this, otherwise we are in serious threat of back to back relegations.
I am glad Darrell Clarke is in now and has some time to address this, otherwise we are in serious threat of back to back relegations.

 Posts: 29942
 Joined: 21 Nov 2009, 03:27
Time to assess this again.
To reach 50 points we need 42 points, from 31 games.
That means we need 1.35 points per game (ppg). That form is equivalent to 62 points over a season.
To reach 50 points we need 42 points, from 31 games.
That means we need 1.35 points per game (ppg). That form is equivalent to 62 points over a season.

 Posts: 132
 Joined: 05 Feb 2021, 20:54
 Location: Er, Pittville
I made the point in another thread that WINS are what is needed.
L W (e.g. Blackpool/Vale) is better than an (unbeaten) DD sequence.
DC seems to be on this wavelength.
That's not to say that at 1 1 away with 5 to go it's not worth settling for a point but the mindset at the outset should be to win every game.
I remain hopeful and positive. Plenty of games to go.
L W (e.g. Blackpool/Vale) is better than an (unbeaten) DD sequence.
DC seems to be on this wavelength.
That's not to say that at 1 1 away with 5 to go it's not worth settling for a point but the mindset at the outset should be to win every game.
I remain hopeful and positive. Plenty of games to go.

 Posts: 29942
 Joined: 21 Nov 2009, 03:27
Amidst the frustration and (over?) reaction from yesterday it’s worth pointing out that in the four league games DC has been able to influence (not counting Fleetwood) we have 1.75 points per game.
We need 1.35 points per game from here on to get to 50 points.
Even if we count the Fleetwood game, DC has 1.4 points per game.
So in the league he does already have us on track for reaching safety. The next two home league games are a chance to react to yesterday’s awful aberration and will indicate if we can keep on track for safety  which if achieved will make the cup game irrelevant.
We need 1.35 points per game from here on to get to 50 points.
Even if we count the Fleetwood game, DC has 1.4 points per game.
So in the league he does already have us on track for reaching safety. The next two home league games are a chance to react to yesterday’s awful aberration and will indicate if we can keep on track for safety  which if achieved will make the cup game irrelevant.

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 Joined: 21 Nov 2009, 03:27
As good as the performance was, a draw is obviously below the run rate required so the task gets a little bit harder.
So 41 points needed from 30 games. Which is 1.37 points per game. For context, that is form equivalent to a 63 point season  harder than earlier in this thread.
So 41 points needed from 30 games. Which is 1.37 points per game. For context, that is form equivalent to a 63 point season  harder than earlier in this thread.
Reading, Carlisle, Exeter, we can only hope will continue their terrible current form. I don't think Exeter have won since the beat us and were top, or thereabouts?
Obviously not expecting us to get anything v Oxford or away at Charlton, where a certain someone is bound to score at least two, but, as Robin says, the six games between 9th December and 1st January will be crucial. If we can get 12 from that 18 we will be in with a shout, and then hopefully able to strengthen.
Obviously not expecting us to get anything v Oxford or away at Charlton, where a certain someone is bound to score at least two, but, as Robin says, the six games between 9th December and 1st January will be crucial. If we can get 12 from that 18 we will be in with a shout, and then hopefully able to strengthen.

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 Joined: 21 Nov 2009, 03:27
RegencyCheltenhamSpa wrote: ↑12 Nov 2023, 10:28 As good as the performance was, a draw is obviously below the run rate required so the task gets a little bit harder.
So 41 points needed from 30 games. Which is 1.37 points per game. For context, that is form equivalent to a 63 point season  harder than earlier in this thread.
5 games further on, and the requirement hasn’t got much easier.
1.36 points per game needed to get to 50 points (34 points from 25 games).
We have been ticking along at 1.4 since the last update, with 7 points from 5 games.

 Posts: 1828
 Joined: 15 Aug 2011, 16:40
Balls! Clarke and Muzza’s red army are going up!RegencyCheltenhamSpa wrote: ↑24 Dec 2023, 15:52
5 games further on, and the requirement hasn’t got much easier.
“We’ll win the league, at Broadhall Way, we’ll win the league at Broadhall way…..”
As long as we are keeping up, then that is OK.RegencyCheltenhamSpa wrote: ↑24 Dec 2023, 15:52RegencyCheltenhamSpa wrote: ↑12 Nov 2023, 10:28 As good as the performance was, a draw is obviously below the run rate required so the task gets a little bit harder.
So 41 points needed from 30 games. Which is 1.37 points per game. For context, that is form equivalent to a 63 point season  harder than earlier in this thread.
5 games further on, and the requirement hasn’t got much easier.
1.36 points per game needed to get to 50 points (34 points from 25 games).
We have been ticking along at 1.4 since the last update, with 7 points from 5 games.
From where and how we were, the fact we have a realistic chance of being out of the bottom four on NYD, let alone just being there or thereabouts on points with the other relegation threatened teams with half a season and a transfer window to go, is a miracle. Obviously January is going to have a big say in it, but right now I feel like we are going to end up fairly comfortable, considering, and be safe with a few games to go.

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 Joined: 21 Nov 2009, 03:27
No change in the PPG required.RegencyCheltenhamSpa wrote: ↑24 Dec 2023, 15:52RegencyCheltenhamSpa wrote: ↑12 Nov 2023, 10:28 As good as the performance was, a draw is obviously below the run rate required so the task gets a little bit harder.
So 41 points needed from 30 games. Which is 1.37 points per game. For context, that is form equivalent to a 63 point season  harder than earlier in this thread.
5 games further on, and the requirement hasn’t got much easier.
1.36 points per game needed to get to 50 points (34 points from 25 games).
We have been ticking along at 1.4 since the last update, with 7 points from 5 games.
We need 1.36 ppg, which is 30 points from 22 games.
The rolling 5 game average is still 1.4 ppg, with 7 points from the last 5 games.