Teams around us - Thread to season end

[Jim]

Saturday was a huge blow. The fortunate thing is we still play a lot of those around the bottom 8 and many at home. It's all about how we respond to Saturday.

I think a lot of people expected us to roll over Wycombe after the performances against Pompey, Bolton and Derby. Teams aren't just going to roll over for us though. We have to maintain the right attitude. Take the game to every opponent and the team needs us to get behind them rather than giving up with more than a third of the season still to go.

This is it - a defeat would make it 4 on the bounce and then confidence will be shot. A win in any form can get the momentum going again, we just need to stay in the fight. Our last stretch of games is pretty kind, and if we can go into the last 6 on something like 38 points (so 15 from 12) and with a bit of confidence I think it's still possible.

Lose on Saturday and it'll be very difficult to see a way out, mainly because it will indicate the mentality DC has managed to bring to the team is slipping away.

[Shade]

Saturday was a huge blow. The fortunate thing is we still play a lot of those around the bottom 8 and many at home. It's all about how we respond to Saturday.

I think a lot of people expected us to roll over Wycombe after the performances against Pompey, Bolton and Derby. Teams aren't just going to roll over for us though. We have to maintain the right attitude. Take the game to every opponent and the team needs us to get behind them rather than giving up with more than a third of the season still to go.

This is it - a defeat would make it 4 on the bounce and then confidence will be shot. A win in any form can get the momentum going again, we just need to stay in the fight. Our last stretch of games is pretty kind, and if we can go into the last 6 on something like 38 points (so 15 from 12) and with a bit of confidence I think it's still possible.

Lose on Saturday and it'll be very difficult to see a way out, mainly because it will indicate the mentality DC has managed to bring to the team is slipping away.

When you say 15 points from 12 games that doesn't seem impossible given the fixtures we have. I've got us getting 17pts at best before the final 6 (not knowing when Burton away will be).
Cambridge (a) 1
Blackpool (h) 0
Port Vale (h) 3
Wigan (a) 0
Wycombe (a) 1
Burton (h) 3
Charlton (h) 3
Oxford (a) 0
Barnsley (a) 0
Peterborough (h) 0
Fleetwood (a) 3
Exeter (h) 3
Orient (a) 1
Carlisle (h) 3
Bristol Rovers (h) 3
Lincoln (h) 3
Stevenage (a) 0
and Burton away at some point 1

That would be 8 wins, 4 draws and 6 defeats. 28 points, taking us to 51, which would be enough. Putting my optimistic hat on, hoping to whatever higher power might be listening, and hoping that we begin playing like we did in January and not like we did against Wycombe, and get a little bit more luck. There is very, very little room for slip ups now, unless we really become good and start taking points from the likes of Wigan, Oxford, Barnsley, Peterborough.

If we get relegated on the last day away at the fat b#!#%#d's play-off celebration I will never watch another football match.

[1985CTFC]

Statistical position of Lg1 clubs as at 6th Feb if anyone is interested.
If I am reading the graphs correctly it has us at 46 points with a 65% chance of relegation. I stand corrected if I have misread the graphs.
Be interesting to capture these graph and see how accurate they are at season end.

https://www.probs4.club/lge/lge1

[Shade]

That had us at 35.8% chance of relegation after we beat Portsmouth. 3 games later and it's 65.8%

[1985CTFC]

Looking at Cambridge recent results last 4 games they have won 2 and drawn 2. Given them 8 points.
The teams they played were Shrewsbury, Burton, Exeter and Fleetwood. All were struggling when they played Cambridge.
So we should go there with confidence we can perform better than those 4 did, at the time. Those relatively easy points pushed Cambridge mid table. Fair play they won them though.
Also we beat Cambridge with the start of DC in charge.
Big confidence boost if we can get a win, obviously. Lets hope this week has got the new players up to speed with how DC wants to play.

[CTFCfan99]

Looking at Cambridge recent results last 4 games they have won 2 and drawn 2. Given them 8 points.
The teams they played were Shrewsbury, Burton, Exeter and Fleetwood. All were struggling when they played Cambridge.
So we should go there with confidence we can perform better than those 4 did, at the time. Those relatively easy points pushed Cambridge mid table. Fair play they won them though.
Also we beat Cambridge with the start of DC in charge.
Big confidence boost if we can get a win, obviously. Lets hope this week has got the new players up to speed with how DC wants to play.

No reason we can't win, but confidence will be teetering after our last few away games where we've performed well but been denied by silly individual errors and horrible officiating. Make or break tomorrow - a loss could crush us, a win puts us right back into it.

After a few Friday night beers I'm feeling optimistic - our luck will finally change as we're awarded a sketchy penalty late on to snatch a 2-1 win.

I'm looking forward to revisiting this post in 17 hours for a good laugh at myself

[PittvillePundit]

Looking at Cambridge recent results last 4 games they have won 2 and drawn 2. Given them 8 points.
The teams they played were Shrewsbury, Burton, Exeter and Fleetwood. All were struggling when they played Cambridge.
So we should go there with confidence we can perform better than those 4 did, at the time. Those relatively easy points pushed Cambridge mid table. Fair play they won them though.
Also we beat Cambridge with the start of DC in charge.
Big confidence boost if we can get a win, obviously. Lets hope this week has got the new players up to speed with how DC wants to play.

No reason we can't win, but confidence will be teetering after our last few away games where we've performed well but been denied by silly individual errors and horrible officiating. Make or break tomorrow - a loss could crush us, a win puts us right back into it.

After a few Friday night beers I'm feeling optimistic - our luck will finally change as we're awarded a sketchy penalty late on to snatch a 2-1 win.

I'm looking forward to revisiting this post in 17 hours for a good laugh at myself

No need.

What a great win!

[RobinHood]

Charlton’s form since beating us in November.

LLDDDLLLDLLLDLD

[ctfc-fan]

Maybe Alfie will be begging Charlton to let him join us back as they slip down…

[robinsrule]

Some huge games coming up but after tonight I believe again!

[Shade]

Can guarantee now we're just about in striking distance that we'll lose to Vale and Charlton will win 3 on the bounce starting Saturday. It happened when we nearly caught Exeter, Wycombe, Shrews, Cambridge, Reading...

[Shade]

When you say 15 points from 12 games that doesn't seem impossible given the fixtures we have. I've got us getting 17pts at best before the final 6 (not knowing when Burton away will be).
Cambridge (a) 1
Blackpool (h) 0
Port Vale (h) 3
Wigan (a) 0
Wycombe (a) 1
Burton (h) 3
Charlton (h) 3
Oxford (a) 0
Barnsley (a) 0
Peterborough (h) 0
Fleetwood (a) 3
Exeter (h) 3
Orient (a) 1
Carlisle (h) 3
Bristol Rovers (h) 3
Lincoln (h) 3
Stevenage (a) 0
and Burton away at some point 1

5 points up on my predictions already. Let's go! I'm predicting another 27 points there so we'll home and probably a finish around 16-18th

[Jerry St Clair]

Fleetwood with a 95th minute equaliser against Reading (so late Jim announced it as a Reading win as we were leaving the ground).

[Leckyfan]

Can guarantee now we're just about in striking distance that we'll lose to Vale and Charlton will win 3 on the bounce starting Saturday. It happened when we nearly caught Exeter, Wycombe, Shrews, Cambridge, Reading...

Striking distance indeed - here’s the updated forecast from #PPGProphet after tonight’s epic 3 points from Blackpool:

https://x.com/ppgprophet/status/1757535 ... xLmqk6RNvA

CTFC now forecast to finish up well above Charlton, and just needing to overtake Port Vale (who have superior GD) to achieve safety. Saturday’s 6-pointer looks more important than ever…

Our progression since DC’s arrival shown beautifully here:

https://x.com/ppgprophet/status/1757535 ... xLmqk6RNvA

[RegencyCheltenhamSpa]

Can guarantee now we're just about in striking distance that we'll lose to Vale and Charlton will win 3 on the bounce starting Saturday. It happened when we nearly caught Exeter, Wycombe, Shrews, Cambridge, Reading...

Striking distance indeed - here’s the updated forecast from #PPGProphet after tonight’s epic 3 points from Blackpool:

https://x.com/ppgprophet/status/1757535 ... xLmqk6RNvA

CTFC now forecast to finish up well above Charlton, and just needing to overtake Port Vale (who have superior GD) to achieve safety. Saturday’s 6-pointer looks more important than ever…

Our progression since DC’s arrival shown beautifully here:

https://x.com/ppgprophet/status/1757535 ... xLmqk6RNvA

The Orient and Reading throwaways and the Derby and Bolton referees clearly visible in that line chart.

[CS85]

Charlton next three games are bolton away,Portsmouth at home and Derby away.

That's bloody tough.....

[Robin]

Latest relegation odds:
Carlisle 1/50
Fleetwood 1/7
Cheltenham 11/10
Shrewsbury 9/4
Burton 5/2
Charlton 11/4
Port Vale 3/1
Cambridge 5/1

Reading are not currently listed on oddschecker.

[Jim]

Latest relegation odds:
Carlisle 1/50
Fleetwood 1/7
Cheltenham 11/10
Shrewsbury 9/4
Burton 5/2
Charlton 11/4
Port Vale 3/1
Cambridge 5/1

Reading are not currently listed on oddschecker.

That's interesting, surprised Vale are quite such long odds - maybe they're expecting a Darren Moore bounce.

Forgive my ignorance, but where are Reading with their financial issues? It felt like a couple of weeks ago another points penalty was a possibility. Without something like that, I don't see them being in any trouble at all now.

[Si Robin]

I suspect their player sales in January have helped them out somewhat.

[Robin]

Reading have a 3 point suspended deduction hanging over them so any further protests or late salary payments and that would kick in. The fact they have taken ten points from the last four, retained most of their better players like Azeez/Smith and player sales likely helping their cash flow makes me think they will probably be ok and avoid the drop.

[1985CTFC]

Just been looking at Charlton. A fan said they need 6 wins to stay up. They have 14 games left and if you look at their fixtures, that looks a tough ask. Unless Nathan Jones gets an instant reaction it is going to be tough with their next fixtures being Bolton away, Portsmouth at home, Derby away. Lose those 3 and confidence in staying up may well be shot.
Then they play Northampton away and then us away. 5 of the 14 games gone by them.
Hopefully they will be mentally doomed by the time we owe them one.
Fans turning on Alfie as well. Would we take him back on a free? Probably not as he has made his bed and must now lie in it. Guess the extra money will soften the blow.
Hope we don't have a clause to say we have to pay them money back if they get relegated.
Shame we wont get a promotion add on this season.
Not sure Nathan Jones is going to be able to do it in the time available with the players he has available.

[Robin]

Charlton are stuck in a rut at the moment but given their playing staff I fear once they get that first win a few others will follow soon after. Just look what Reading and Exeter have achieved after being neck and neck with us for ages at the bottom.

[Shade]

Just been looking at Charlton. A fan said they need 6 wins to stay up. They have 14 games left and if you look at their fixtures, that looks a tough ask. Unless Nathan Jones gets an instant reaction it is going to be tough with their next fixtures being Bolton away, Portsmouth at home, Derby away. Lose those 3 and confidence in staying up may well be shot.
Then they play Northampton away and then us away. 5 of the 14 games gone by them.
Hopefully they will be mentally doomed by the time we owe them one.
Fans turning on Alfie as well. Would we take him back on a free? Probably not as he has made his bed and must now lie in it. Guess the extra money will soften the blow.
Hope we don't have a clause to say we have to pay them money back if they get relegated.
Shame we wont get a promotion add on this season.
Not sure Nathan Jones is going to be able to do it in the time available with the players he has available.

I hope we give Nathan Jones more to whine about like the little bitch that he is after our game. Can't stand him.

[1985CTFC]

Charlton are stuck in a rut at the moment but given their playing staff I fear once they get that first win a few others will follow soon after. Just look what Reading and Exeter have achieved after being neck and neck with us for ages at the bottom.

Not sure they have the players with the right mentality. talking of Charlton here.
Exeter just had a streaky run, own goals for them and lucky breaks, but they weren't playing well.
I live near Exeter so take a little interest in them, Manager just got a little lucky at the right time. Was nearly gone until they fluked one. But happy for them to stay up. Don't think they will be far ahead of us at the end of the season. 10 points ahead of us and we have 3 games in hand and they come to Whaddon Road. Think we can close the gap, but that lucky streak of games has probably saved them.
Think Cambridge need to be careful along with the Shrews, Charlton and PV.
Reading should be ok. Also Burton with new manager should just about survive.
Don't won't any of the so called unfashionable clubs to go down with Carlisle.
Fleetwood, Charlton and Shrews for me. Teach them to get rid of SC etc etc.

[1985CTFC]

Charlton are stuck in a rut at the moment but given their playing staff I fear once they get that first win a few others will follow soon after. Just look what Reading and Exeter have achieved after being neck and neck with us for ages at the bottom.

I think sometimes we overestimate the quality of a lot of these players at the so called bigger clubs.
Charlton there for a reason, poor recruitment and Manager before as well as players just average.
You see some players at the 'bigger clubs' on 6k a week and I think, give me 3 Sercombes or even 1 Sercombe over their player.
We should not underestimate how good our players are, as shown under DC.

Problem is for Charlton is when are they getting that first win, 5 tough games then only 9 games left to get some points.
Music to my ears the Charlton mess. Read their forum.

[1985CTFC]

Just been looking at Charlton. A fan said they need 6 wins to stay up. They have 14 games left and if you look at their fixtures, that looks a tough ask. Unless Nathan Jones gets an instant reaction it is going to be tough with their next fixtures being Bolton away, Portsmouth at home, Derby away. Lose those 3 and confidence in staying up may well be shot.
Then they play Northampton away and then us away. 5 of the 14 games gone by them.
Hopefully they will be mentally doomed by the time we owe them one.
Fans turning on Alfie as well. Would we take him back on a free? Probably not as he has made his bed and must now lie in it. Guess the extra money will soften the blow.
Hope we don't have a clause to say we have to pay them money back if they get relegated.
Shame we wont get a promotion add on this season.
Not sure Nathan Jones is going to be able to do it in the time available with the players he has available.

I hope we give Nathan Jones more to whine about like the little bitch that he is after our game. Can't stand him.

I think he is a little overated to be honest. Living on his Luton legacy me thinks.
Saw a youtube vid of him discussing how he beat Man City. Talk about gobbly gook, couldn't follow what he was on about.
If that's his management style for Charlton players then God help them. But we shall see. Just hope he doesn't do one on us after I have slagged him off.

[Shade]

I've just done a bit of maths. Since the Fleetwood game, which was the last game we didn't score in, the table for the teams currently on 35 points or less in the table reads as follows

Reading P22, 29pts
Cheltenham P19, 28pts
Burton P20, 25pts
Shrews P20, 25pts
Cambridge P20, 21pts
Charlton P22, 18pts
Fleetwood P22, 18pts
Carlisle P20, 12pts

So as we can see, we're a point behind Reading with 3 games in hand in this mini-league over the last 19-22 games since we finally scored.

[Si Robin]

Technically we didn't score against Bolton

[1985CTFC]

I've just done a bit of maths. Since the Fleetwood game, which was the last game we didn't score in, the table for the teams currently on 35 points or less in the table reads as follows

Reading P22, 29pts
Cheltenham P19, 28pts
Burton P20, 25pts
Shrews P20, 25pts
Cambridge P20, 21pts
Charlton P22, 18pts
Fleetwood P22, 18pts
Carlisle P20, 12pts

So as we can see, we're a point behind Reading with 3 games in hand in this mini-league over the last 19-22 games since we finally scored.

Equates to a 68 point season. Which last season should have put us 9th or 10th. 9 points of playoffs!
Well done to everyone in the squad

[RegencyCheltenhamSpa]

I've just done a bit of maths. Since the Fleetwood game, which was the last game we didn't score in, the table for the teams currently on 35 points or less in the table reads as follows

Reading P22, 29pts
Cheltenham P19, 28pts
Burton P20, 25pts
Shrews P20, 25pts
Cambridge P20, 21pts
Charlton P22, 18pts
Fleetwood P22, 18pts
Carlisle P20, 12pts

So as we can see, we're a point behind Reading with 3 games in hand in this mini-league over the last 19-22 games since we finally scored.

Burton, Shrews and Cambridge form is annoyingly good. Be nice for one of them to derail.

[Shade]

Vale lose their game in hand over us at Reading. Reading now onto 38 points, along with Cambridge, who lost at home to Notlob.

Us on 32, Charlton on 33, Shrews 35, then 4 teams on 38. Wigan next on 40, then two in that group on 38, and then it's Charlton...

Hold onto your hats, boys and girls.

[ctfc-fan]

Reading still can be drawn in

[RegencyCheltenhamSpa]

Vale lose their game in hand over us at Reading. Reading now onto 38 points, along with Cambridge, who lost at home to Notlob.

Us on 32, Charlton on 33, Shrews 35, then 4 teams on 38. Wigan next on 40, then two in that group on 38, and then it's Charlton...

Hold onto your hats, boys and girls.

Hats off if we win all four

[Jerry St Clair]

Reading still can be drawn in

Reading were absolutely awful last night. Vale were even worse.

Reading seem to have developed a knack of playing abysmally and getting results. I suspect they will pull away. There are plenty of other teams in poor form that we can catch.

I didn't quite realise how bad Vale's form is. They have won three games since September, compared to our three since mid February . They would need to win one more than us to overtake us.

[Robin]

Reading still can be drawn in

Both Reading and Exeter are in a false position as whilst their points totals are very healthy they've both played two or three games more than everyone else.