I've looked forensically at every League One team's performance since Town hit rock bottom on 3rd October. That was before we scored our first goal of the season in the twelfth game (home to Derby), which sparked the remarkable turnaround in form.
Since those fateful first 11 matches, the Robins have averaged 1.55 points per game. Unbelievably, only the following seven teams have bettered that return: Derby (2.13 ppg), Bolton (2.09), Portsmouth (2.04), Barnsley (1.95), Peterborough (1.80), Stevenage (1.67), and Orient (1.61).
The worst returns over that same period have been: Carlisle (0.57 ppg), Vale (0.70), Fleetwood (0.78), Charlton (0.83), Exeter and Wycombe (both 1.00). Even 5th-placed Oxford (1.37), much-improved Northampton (1.39), and 8th-placed Blackpool (1.52) haven't matched our return.
Obviously, being in ultra catch-up mode has meant it's taken ages just to get back into contention. Net points gained over our rivals since 3rd October include: Carlisle 19 points (in 1 less game); Port Vale 17; Fleetwood 13 (in 3 less games); Charlton 12 (in 3 less); Wycombe 9 (in 2 less); Exeter 8 (in 3 less); Cambridge 7 (in 2 less); Shrewsbury 6 (in 3 less).
[Apart from Vale, we have played fewer games over that period than anyone else in League One]
Without wanting to get carried away, it's fair to say that the Robins' impressive return has been sustained over 20 games (almost half a season). That is more than a blip. We have games in hand, too, so it's not inconceivable that some more clubs could be leapfrogged soon.
With Darrell Clarke at the helm, I believe there is every reason to be cautiously optimistic that club will continue to get the results needed to maintain League One status.
Robins' amazing improvement
Moderators: Admin, Ralph, asl, Robin
I think what DC has achieved already makes him our greatest manager!
Given how tight it is just above us, it's not inconceivable that we could beat our highest ever finish. Imagine saying that in October
Yep just outside playoff form. Mind you we still have to play 4 of those teams. 1 home and 3 away.vickeryc wrote: ↑21 Feb 2024, 14:19 I've looked forensically at every League One team's performance since Town hit rock bottom on 3rd October. That was before we scored our first goal of the season in the twelfth game (home to Derby), which sparked the remarkable turnaround in form.
Since those fateful first 11 matches, the Robins have averaged 1.55 points per game. Unbelievably, only the following seven teams have bettered that return: Derby (2.13 ppg), Bolton (2.09), Portsmouth (2.04), Barnsley (1.95), Peterborough (1.80), Stevenage (1.67), and Orient (1.61).
The worst returns over that same period have been: Carlisle (0.57 ppg), Vale (0.70), Fleetwood (0.78), Charlton (0.83), Exeter and Wycombe (both 1.00). Even 5th-placed Oxford (1.37), much-improved Northampton (1.39), and 8th-placed Blackpool (1.52) haven't matched our return.
Obviously, being in ultra catch-up mode has meant it's taken ages just to get back into contention. Net points gained over our rivals since 3rd October include: Carlisle 19 points (in 1 less game); Port Vale 17; Fleetwood 13 (in 3 less games); Charlton 12 (in 3 less); Wycombe 9 (in 2 less); Exeter 8 (in 3 less); Cambridge 7 (in 2 less); Shrewsbury 6 (in 3 less).
[Apart from Vale, we have played fewer games over that period than anyone else in League One]
Without wanting to get carried away, it's fair to say that the Robins' impressive return has been sustained over 20 games (almost half a season). That is more than a blip. We have games in hand, too, so it's not inconceivable that some more clubs could be leapfrogged soon.
With Darrell Clarke at the helm, I believe there is every reason to be cautiously optimistic that club will continue to get the results needed to maintain League One status.
Beat them and we are in the play offs!!!!!!!!
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Swiss-Robin
- Posts: 136
- Joined: 31 Jul 2015, 18:09
So. Doing the maths on the numbers given above, and bringing that form up to 46 games, gives something like this:
CTFC. 55 Pts
Wycombe 52
Charlton 45
--------------------
Vale 42
Exeter 41
Fleetwood 36
Carlisle 29
And that's not taking into account what Salop, Burton, Cambridgeshire or Reading might end up with.
In DC we trust
CTFC. 55 Pts
Wycombe 52
Charlton 45
--------------------
Vale 42
Exeter 41
Fleetwood 36
Carlisle 29
And that's not taking into account what Salop, Burton, Cambridgeshire or Reading might end up with.
In DC we trust
I was looking at the fixtures last night. We have 15 games remaining and 11 of those are against teams 10th or below. 10th or below are basically out of play-off contention, realistically, currently 8 points back having played a game more. We still have to play 24th, 23rd, 20th, 18th x 2, 15th, 14th, 13th, 12th.
We have a tricky run of Oxford, Barnsley, Peterborough, currently 5th, 4th and 6th, in March. Orient, 9th, is the other game. No reason why we can't get points off of those in 2024 form, let alone the rest.
We have a tricky run of Oxford, Barnsley, Peterborough, currently 5th, 4th and 6th, in March. Orient, 9th, is the other game. No reason why we can't get points off of those in 2024 form, let alone the rest.
What he has done is already amazing, I actually feel we might just stay up this season now after totally writing it off some time back. Assuming we do pull it off it really builds some excitement of just how good we could be next season, our form suggests we could go for our first top half finish which would be amazing.
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Swiss-Robin
- Posts: 136
- Joined: 31 Jul 2015, 18:09
Looking at everyone's fixtures from Wycombe down v current top 6, it's much of a muchness. For this reason, I see no real need to stress-out about our upcoming spell of Oxford-Tykes-Posh.
When it comes to outstanding matches against the current top 3, who we and Fleetwood are done with, it's a different story I think?
Wycombe, Reading, Cambridge, Salop, Vale, Charlton all have 2 to play. Carlisle and Burton just 1 (both away). Exeter 1 as well.
Maybe, just maybe, the final few weeks of fixtures are falling in our favour?
When it comes to outstanding matches against the current top 3, who we and Fleetwood are done with, it's a different story I think?
Wycombe, Reading, Cambridge, Salop, Vale, Charlton all have 2 to play. Carlisle and Burton just 1 (both away). Exeter 1 as well.
Maybe, just maybe, the final few weeks of fixtures are falling in our favour?
Yeah, the great thing is we needn't fear anyone in this league now. A complete contrast to early season, characterised by our defensive set-up and deference towards every opposing team. I see plenty enough winnable games remaining to get us well clear of the drop zone. We now have the facility to adapt to different types of opponents and actually play better against decent footballing teams like Portsmouth and Blackpool. We struggle more against sides that referees allow to get away with excessive pushing and holding, notably Wycombe.Shade wrote: ↑21 Feb 2024, 16:51 I was looking at the fixtures last night. We have 15 games remaining and 11 of those are against teams 10th or below. 10th or below are basically out of play-off contention, realistically, currently 8 points back having played a game more. We still have to play 24th, 23rd, 20th, 18th x 2, 15th, 14th, 13th, 12th.
We have a tricky run of Oxford, Barnsley, Peterborough, currently 5th, 4th and 6th, in March. Orient, 9th, is the other game. No reason why we can't get points off of those in 2024 form, let alone the rest.
I mean, I think keeping us up will be a decent achievement, but let's not get carried away.
In what world is nearly keeping us safe the same as 3 promotions and winning a trophy at Wembley?
Don't get me wrong, he's turned us around completely. Before he took over we were 100% heading to League 2 and now the probability is we will be comfortably safe. It's fantastic what he's done, and I wouldn't want anyone else in charge right now. But he hasn't achieved anything yet - and he'd say as much himself.
Yes, I'm sure DC would say as much because he's a modest guy. What I said was just an opinion, albeit slightly tongue in cheek! If he does keep us up, it could well go down as the greatest relegation escape in EFL history after that record-breaking poor start where the virtually a quarter of the season was written off.Si Robin wrote: ↑21 Feb 2024, 20:03I mean, I think keeping us up will be a decent achievement, but let's not get carried away.
In what world is nearly keeping us safe the same as 3 promotions and winning a trophy at Wembley?
Don't get me wrong, he's turned us around completely. Before he took over we were 100% heading to League 2 and now the probability is we will be comfortably safe. It's fantastic what he's done, and I wouldn't want anyone else in charge right now. But he hasn't achieved anything yet - and he'd say as much himself.
I agreed the turnaround is great - not disputing that in the slightest. But we were never really cut adrift. If we were 7 points behind with 3 to play, then staying up is a miracle. 7 behind with 36 to play is not an inconceivable feat.
It also wasn't the worst start in EFL history - Man United lost their first 12 games in 1930-31 season. In fact, that draw with Pompey in our 4th game of the season means it's not even in the top 10 of worst starts to a season.
I'm not doing DC down at all, I'm really not, but you are talking as if we were 30 points adrift with 10 games to go. We weren't. He's come in, changed the attitude of the team and put us on the front foot tactically, with the majority of the same players. It's a great achievement. I just don't think it's the greatest anything - and we're still not safe yet either.
It also wasn't the worst start in EFL history - Man United lost their first 12 games in 1930-31 season. In fact, that draw with Pompey in our 4th game of the season means it's not even in the top 10 of worst starts to a season.
I'm not doing DC down at all, I'm really not, but you are talking as if we were 30 points adrift with 10 games to go. We weren't. He's come in, changed the attitude of the team and put us on the front foot tactically, with the majority of the same players. It's a great achievement. I just don't think it's the greatest anything - and we're still not safe yet either.
I didn't really want to continue the ping-pong but, ok, Man Utd lost their first 12 games nearly 100 years ago 
. And fine, we claimed a draw in our fourth game, though that doesn't alter the fact that we amassed just 1 point from our first 11 games and had still not scored our first goal. So the fact that we got our solitary point in the fourth game is hardly relevant. How many teams have started a season with 1 point (and no goals) from their opening 11 matches?
If you want to split hairs, my point was that, overnight, DC transformed the team from the worst performers (by some distance) to virtual play-off form over the course of 20 matches. However, I never hinted at ridiculous scenarios like rescuing us from 30 points adrift with 10 games to go, or 7 points behind with 3 to play. True, we were only 7 points adrift after 11 games (9 points if you take Wigan and Reading out of the equation given their points deductions and somewhat 'false' positions in the league at that time). 7 (or 9) points may not sound much, but in the context of taking just 1 point from the first 33 it was huge. It is the speed and the manner in which DC has turned it around that is so impressive, though in fairness you do acknowledge that.
Anyway, as you suggest, he's achieved nothing tangible yet, but lets hope he does.
. And fine, we claimed a draw in our fourth game, though that doesn't alter the fact that we amassed just 1 point from our first 11 games and had still not scored our first goal. So the fact that we got our solitary point in the fourth game is hardly relevant. How many teams have started a season with 1 point (and no goals) from their opening 11 matches?If you want to split hairs, my point was that, overnight, DC transformed the team from the worst performers (by some distance) to virtual play-off form over the course of 20 matches. However, I never hinted at ridiculous scenarios like rescuing us from 30 points adrift with 10 games to go, or 7 points behind with 3 to play. True, we were only 7 points adrift after 11 games (9 points if you take Wigan and Reading out of the equation given their points deductions and somewhat 'false' positions in the league at that time). 7 (or 9) points may not sound much, but in the context of taking just 1 point from the first 33 it was huge. It is the speed and the manner in which DC has turned it around that is so impressive, though in fairness you do acknowledge that.
Anyway, as you suggest, he's achieved nothing tangible yet, but lets hope he does.
If DC keeps us up then its a magnificent achievement however not as big as operation bounce back IMO. There was far more pressure on that having dropped out of the EFL. Im sure DC's brief from the board was to try and keep us up but it hasn't got the pressure GJ had
Not so sure, there was a lot of cash thrown at the bounce back year. Not so much this yearHorteng wrote: ↑23 Feb 2024, 08:46 If DC keeps us up then its a magnificent achievement however not as big as operation bounce back IMO. There was far more pressure on that having dropped out of the EFL. Im sure DC's brief from the board was to try and keep us up but it hasn't got the pressure GJ had
That's a fair point, Horteng, the pressure would've been truly intense...and GJ rebuilt the entire squad.
I've often thought his incredible achievement was tarnished, in the eyes of many, by what followed. However, that should take nothing away from the bounceback season, which indeed was truly astonishing
.
I've often thought his incredible achievement was tarnished, in the eyes of many, by what followed. However, that should take nothing away from the bounceback season, which indeed was truly astonishing
.Bounceback was an amazing achievement but there were significant tailwinds in that we were a big club for the level and GJ was well back (which is unusual for us). I'm not saying this to detract but for context and like others point out our return to the league was extremely disappointing under GJ although there were headwinds as the board clearly cut back on spending and GJ ran into health issues too.vickeryc wrote: ↑23 Feb 2024, 09:14 That's a fair point, Horteng, the pressure would've been truly intense...and GJ rebuilt the entire squad.
I've often thought his incredible achievement was tarnished, in the eyes of many, by what followed. However, that should take nothing away from the bounceback season, which indeed was truly astonishing
As a few have said, DC hasn't achieved our survival, and I agree, but what he has achieved is giving us hope of survival.
He must be a great motivator, has an eye for a player. Under WE id given up, and was attending games that I didnt really want to be at, but DC has got me really looking fwd to attending games again.
If we don't survive (which I feel we will do), he's given us hope that we will be fighting to bounce back immediately. The potential to be our best manager is certainly there. He's been amazing so far. We'll done DC right behind you
He must be a great motivator, has an eye for a player. Under WE id given up, and was attending games that I didnt really want to be at, but DC has got me really looking fwd to attending games again.
If we don't survive (which I feel we will do), he's given us hope that we will be fighting to bounce back immediately. The potential to be our best manager is certainly there. He's been amazing so far. We'll done DC right behind you
To be fair to Wade we did have a proper injury crisis and an unfortunate run of hard games ......but yes DC has done a fantastic job and if we stay up he should be in the running for manager of the season (but will no doubt be given to Derby, Portsmouth or Bolton)
Maths and logic being distorted a bit. Not the same being 7 points behind after 11 games as being 7 points ish behind after 20 games
Also to be fair to Wade, Keena still hasn't managed to score under DC, but DC obviously got others scoring. Wade did get a lot of bad luck, including the changes in the summer with the snakes slithering to Salop, and the players were still putting effort in for him, hence the mostly relatively close results despite losing all but one of the games, but the players, and Wade himself, had clearly become disillusioned with what was going on and the answers to stop it weren't going to be found without the change. I think it was Sercs who said after Portsmouth that we're not just sitting back hoping we can keep the other team out and nick a goal anymore, and I think that summed it all up - Wade had retreated into that mindset, whereas DC's experience and 'get into 'em, f#!$ 'em up' attitude was obviously exactly what we need(ed).
Whilst I think I get the sentiment - seven points behind with three games left means winning them all - seven points is seven points......
Definitely can be seen most in the full backs. Practically a back 5 early on and hoping pace could get us up the pitch. Where as they're practically wingers at times now. Also I never thought Long was skillfull or fast enough for RWB but his strength and aggression is a real asset further up the pitchShade wrote: ↑23 Feb 2024, 12:54 Also to be fair to Wade, Keena still hasn't managed to score under DC, but DC obviously got others scoring. Wade did get a lot of bad luck, including the changes in the summer with the snakes slithering to Salop, and the players were still putting effort in for him, hence the mostly relatively close results despite losing all but one of the games, but the players, and Wade himself, had clearly become disillusioned with what was going on and the answers to stop it weren't going to be found without the change. I think it was Sercs who said after Portsmouth that we're not just sitting back hoping we can keep the other team out and nick a goal anymore, and I think that summed it all up - Wade had retreated into that mindset, whereas DC's experience and 'get into 'em, f#!$ 'em up' attitude was obviously exactly what we need(ed).
On the Lactics site a few posters are talking about them trying to play out from the back too much...
... sounds like one or two of our recent opponents , and we know how that ended.
So ....Same again , keeper plays route one, high press and force them into errors.
Quite confident about this one !!
... sounds like one or two of our recent opponents , and we know how that ended.
So ....Same again , keeper plays route one, high press and force them into errors.
Quite confident about this one !!
Apologies if I'm being dense, but I don't get what you meant in your last sentence. I'm sure that, even after our recent run of 3 defeats to Bolton, Derby and Wycombe, we weren't more than 7 points from safety.
After the Wycombe game we were 7 points from safety, having played a game more than the team in 20th.
18 Burton Albion 30 8 8 14 25 39 -14 32
19 Charlton Athletic 30 7 10 13 43 46 -3 31
20 Port Vale 27 8 6 13 28 42 -14 30
21 Reading 29 8 8 13 37 44 -7 28
22 Cheltenham Town 28 6 5 17 21 40 -19 23
23 Fleetwood Town 29 5 7 17 28 50 -22 22
24 Carlisle United 30 4 8 18 26 50 -24 20
The following Tuesday, Reading beat Stevenage which put us 8 points behind them but with 2 games in hand
18 Burton Albion 30 8 8 14 25 39 -14 32
19 Charlton Athletic 30 7 10 13 43 46 -3 31
20 Port Vale 27 8 6 13 28 42 -14 30
21 Reading 29 8 8 13 37 44 -7 28
22 Cheltenham Town 28 6 5 17 21 40 -19 23
23 Fleetwood Town 29 5 7 17 28 50 -22 22
24 Carlisle United 30 4 8 18 26 50 -24 20
The following Tuesday, Reading beat Stevenage which put us 8 points behind them but with 2 games in hand
Thanks for explaining, SiSi Robin wrote: ↑23 Feb 2024, 18:38 After the Wycombe game we were 7 points from safety, having played a game more than the team in 20th.
18 Burton Albion 30 8 8 14 25 39 -14 32
19 Charlton Athletic 30 7 10 13 43 46 -3 31
20 Port Vale 27 8 6 13 28 42 -14 30
21 Reading 29 8 8 13 37 44 -7 28
22 Cheltenham Town 28 6 5 17 21 40 -19 23
23 Fleetwood Town 29 5 7 17 28 50 -22 22
24 Carlisle United 30 4 8 18 26 50 -24 20
The following Tuesday, Reading beat Stevenage which put us 8 points behind them but with 2 games in hand
. As you rightly say, we were 7 points from safety at that point. However, that's selective as it followed our worst run of results since DC took charge (and which included two narrow away defeats against sides in the top 3 or 4 at the time). I would counter by saying that: (a) we had, in the meantime, made up ground - and overtaken - two teams that were 7 points ahead of us in early October; (b) we had played a game more than most teams in early October, whereas, apart from Vale (who we've since leapfrogged), we had played fewer games than other teams; (c) we followed those 3 defeats with 3 consecutive wins immediately afterwards, which renders the 7 points from safety argument somewhat irrelevant (for now at least!
). Obviously, its a dynamic situation that's dependent on many variables. The one thing we can say for certain is that we are in a much healthier position now than we were in early October.
I agree with your last sentence completely.
My whole argument is that when he took over we were hardly adrift. Whilst it looked hopeless, it wasn't beyond belief that we could turn it around. Certainly not mine, as evidenced by my comments on the Robins Report at the time.
My whole argument is that when he took over we were hardly adrift. Whilst it looked hopeless, it wasn't beyond belief that we could turn it around. Certainly not mine, as evidenced by my comments on the Robins Report at the time.
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Swiss-Robin
- Posts: 136
- Joined: 31 Jul 2015, 18:09
Sorry. I beg to differ. We were in $hit street at that time with zero prospect of anything changing.Si Robin wrote: ↑23 Feb 2024, 19:38 I agree with your last sentence completely.
My whole argument is that when he took over we were hardly adrift. Whilst it looked hopeless, it wasn't beyond belief that we could turn it around. Certainly not mine, as evidenced by my comments on the Robins Report at the time.
End of your argument.
Quite simply:
WE HAVE CLIMBED OUT OF A COFFIN.
If you can't see this, then shame on you.
Do us all a favour and quit your podcast job and give it to a fan that can see and appreciate the miracle that is happening.
End of.