Lies, damn lies and statistics

[1985CTFC]

Looking at stats
https://www.probs4.club/lge/lge1#LOOT-4

Interestingly for quite a while now the points to stay up has been hovering around 48 to 49. From September it has only gone from 47 to 50. But from November it has remained at 48 or 49 with basically no change over 3 to 4 months. Quite consistent based on all team performances. Obviously it might go up or down slightly but over that period of time it looks to me 48 or 49 to do it.
Obviously get as many as possible but mentioning 51 or 52 probably not needed. DC has of course mentioned 50 as a magic number. Might get away with a couple less.

Try and remember this number come season end. 48 to stay up or 49 just to be on the safe side. We shall see if stats lie.

[51/84]

I think it was John Ward who said 51 means you are safe 84 means promotion

Yesterday on the commentary some one said at the start of the game 33 played 33 point we were on virtually the same number of points as at the same stage last year
We need to grind out a few more wins 6 would be perfect but one or even two less providing we get a few draws
It is still in our hands
The numbers through the gate is going up
We need to take points off those around us
COYR

[Red Duke]

I think it was John Ward who said 51 means you are safe 84 means promotion

Yesterday on the commentary some one said at the start of the game 33 played 33 point we were on virtually the same number of points as at the same stage last year
We need to grind out a few more wins 6 would be perfect but one or even two less providing we get a few draws
It is still in our hands
The numbers through the gate is going up
We need to take points off those around us
COYR

I always thought it was a Bobby Gould quote.

[51/84]

yes red Duke you are correct
I did think it wasn't Ward but could not think who it was
Ward said something similar to DC in that to win a match in league2 you need 6 or 7 players on their game
league1 9 or 10
championship 11 or 12
prem 13 or 14
this was before 5 subs so I suspect you can add 3 to each of those number
So we need 3 4 or 5 subs that can change the game
We need to appear to be fresher than Charlton and pick up at least 1 point

[1985CTFC]

4 wins and 3 draws =49 points and relax!!!!! Looks easy? eh

Surely we can do that

[CS85]

Think we need more than 48 or 49. The teams above us on 38/39 have 10/11 games left. I'd expect them all to hit 10 points on that amount of games.

[Fuller]

4 wins and 3 draws =49 points and relax!!!!! Looks easy? eh

Surely we can do that

Not on the last three performances we won’t.
But on the three performances prior to that we will.
Depends on which CTFC turns up over the last 12 matches.

[1985CTFC]

Think we need more than 48 or 49. The teams above us on 38/39 have 10/11 games left. I'd expect them all to hit 10 points on that amount of games.

You would think so. but since mid Nov the performance of the teams in the relegation area have been remarkable consistent in not pushing that safety line above 48/49 points. Likely to change during this season end period? Stats say probably no, but as the subject says, lies, damn lies and statistics. We shall see.
Just hope a couple of other teams hit or continue a bad patch.

Pressure to win does funny things to teams as we have witnessed lately. All team from Exeter down are feeling the pressure. Can we cope better than teams around us? Cambridge do not have a manager, Shrews and PV relatively new managers as do Charlton, Burton.
DC is experienced and been in post longer , hopefully that will tip things in our favour.

[1985CTFC]

We have 12 games left, and in our last 12 games we have accrued 14 points. We have 34 points now plus if we perform in a similar vein we get 48 points. Played some tough games as well in those last 12. Mind you we have some toughies to come as well.
As an example Shrews have 10 games left with 38 points and in their last 10 games have accrued only 8 points. Making 46 points. Not easy when down the bottom to average a point a game.

Without going through all the teams I would imagine none would hit over 50 on longish term form.

Not all of them are going to go on a run, some may but not all and many play each other. Gradually some will get cast adrift he says hopefully.

Just trying to cheer our prospects up!!

[CS85]

If I had to pick one team above us likely to keep falling it would be Cambridge, obviously their manager left not long ago and their fixtures in my opinion are the toughest of the lot.

[1985CTFC]

Had to do most of the teams. Current form over the same number of games each team have to play. Obviously not fool proof just a form indication and not taking in to account any team blowing up or going on a superb run.
Cheltenham 34 + 14 = 48
Shrews 38 + 8 = 46
Cambridge 38 + 11 = 49
PV 32 + 6 = 38
Burton 39 + 11 = 50
Exeter 40 + 14 =54
Charlton 38 + 8 = 46

Based on the figures I would increase Charlton numbers and lower Cambridge and Exeters based on how I personally see things at present. PV will probably get more than 6 but not 18 to reach 50.

Shrews Cambridge and Chelt battling it out for the final place??? Possibly Exeter as well.

Hope you follow!

[1985CTFC]

If I had to pick one team above us likely to keep falling it would be Cambridge, obviously their manager left not long ago and their fixtures in my opinion are the toughest of the lot.

Yes the worst fixtures and manager uncertainty. They lost 12 points from us and Burton. Rather Reading / Shrews went instead though.

[RegencyCheltenhamSpa]

Think we need more than 48 or 49. The teams above us on 38/39 have 10/11 games left. I'd expect them all to hit 10 points on that amount of games.

You would think so. but since mid Nov the performance of the teams in the relegation area have been remarkable consistent in not pushing that safety line above 48/49 points. Likely to change during this season end period? Stats say probably no, but as the subject says, lies, damn lies and statistics. We shall see.
Just hope a couple of other teams hit or continue a bad patch.

Pressure to win does funny things to teams as we have witnessed lately. All team from Exeter down are feeling the pressure. Can we cope better than teams around us? Cambridge do not have a manager, Shrews and PV relatively new managers as do Charlton, Burton.
DC is experienced and been in post longer , hopefully that will tip things in our favour.

Remember, we are one of the teams keeping the projected safety line at 48 or 49 points, whilst the teams above us have been consistently on a trajectory for getting more than 50 points.

If we looked on course to get more than 50 points, the projected safety line would no doubt increase as well.

[Shade]

Knowing the way this season's going, we will get 55 points and still be in 21st.