Alfie May

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Shade
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Dont be silly, just read the words that I wrote and don't infer that I meant anything else. Nobody mentioned all round play. Until January Alfie needed what felt like 10 decent chances to score one goal. But if we are going to be silly then I will compare them. At Lloyd's age, May hadn't made his football league debut and was playing for Hythe Town. May then signed for Doncaster at 23 and over the next 92 games scored 10 goals, and roughly something like 18 in 79 for us before he went goal crazy. Lloyd has scored 6 in 71 before the age May even became professional. You could argue Alfie was played out of position at Donnie. Well, George has been asked to play both wing backs, both wings and behind the striker(s). Lloyd might suddenly start banging in every other chance he gets soon, or in 6 years.
RegencyCheltenhamSpa
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Shade wrote: 02 Jul 2022, 21:27 Dont be silly, just read the words that I wrote and don't infer that I meant anything else. Nobody mentioned all round play. Until January Alfie needed what felt like 10 decent chances to score one goal. But if we are going to be silly then I will compare them. At Lloyd's age, May hadn't made his football league debut and was playing for Hythe Town. May then signed for Doncaster at 23 and over the next 92 games scored 10 goals, and roughly something like 18 in 79 for us before he went goal crazy. Lloyd has scored 6 in 71 before the age May even became professional. You could argue Alfie was played out of position at Donnie. Well, George has been asked to play both wing backs, both wings and behind the striker(s). Lloyd might suddenly start banging in every other chance he gets soon, or in 6 years.
Very informing post. Interesting stats.
Another_FoD_Robin
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Si Robin wrote: 02 Jul 2022, 08:30 To this day we've not spent up to even £100k on a fee, and I don't see us doing so this summer, even with money from the sale of Alfie (FWIW, I don't think he's going anywhere this summer).

You can throw all the hypotheticals you like around, but we do this every year, or every time we have a player who is remotely successful - "If we sell him how do we replace him". It's not about replacing his goals, it's about ensuring the viability of the football club. We are a selling club, and always will be. The way we make money is by bringing in players and hoping to sell them for a profit. We bought Alfie for a nominal fee (probably around £20k) 2 and half years ago. £500k is a nice profit and we look elsewhere when he's gone.

Sometimes we land on our feet, other times we aren't so lucky. That's what Mickey Moore and the scouts are there for. When we signed Alfie his record wasn't great, in fact for a forward in his prime it was quite poor. He just about reached double figures in a championship winning team, and then last season he hit the purple patch of his life. I hope it continues, and we have him until January at least, but the chances are it won't, so if someone offers £500k we will more than likely snap their hands off.
I think I’ve read somewhere that we got Alfie for a really nominal fee like 5k. I’m not sure where I read it though. I would like to say he won’t go this summer but I do think that we have no more than a season left with him. Especially if he kicks on again this season.
RegencyCheltenhamSpa
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Si Robin wrote: 02 Jul 2022, 08:30 To this day we've not spent up to even £100k on a fee, and I don't see us doing so this summer, even with money from the sale of Alfie (FWIW, I don't think he's going anywhere this summer).

You can throw all the hypotheticals you like around, but we do this every year, or every time we have a player who is remotely successful - "If we sell him how do we replace him". It's not about replacing his goals, it's about ensuring the viability of the football club. We are a selling club, and always will be. The way we make money is by bringing in players and hoping to sell them for a profit. We bought Alfie for a nominal fee (probably around £20k) 2 and half years ago. £500k is a nice profit and we look elsewhere when he's gone.

Sometimes we land on our feet, other times we aren't so lucky. That's what Mickey Moore and the scouts are there for. When we signed Alfie his record wasn't great, in fact for a forward in his prime it was quite poor. He just about reached double figures in a championship winning team, and then last season he hit the purple patch of his life. I hope it continues, and we have him until January at least, but the chances are it won't, so if someone offers £500k we will more than likely snap their hands off.
Relegation will threaten viability of the club and probably cost us more than £500k in lost revenue. And that becomes more likely if we sell Alfie without getting enough to cover a few years of costs.
Si Robin
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That's exactly what the board have to weigh up - your use of the word probably means you can't be sure as you no doubt don't have the figures to hand. The board do though and they'll determine if £500k is a deal worth taking at the risk of relegation.
RegencyCheltenhamSpa
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Si Robin wrote: 03 Jul 2022, 14:53 That's exactly what the board have to weigh up - your use of the word probably means you can't be sure as you no doubt don't have the figures to hand. The board do though and they'll determine if £500k is a deal worth taking at the risk of relegation.
Very true
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Broadway Brian
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Let’s see what happens. I suspect we may have seen the last of him in a Cheltenham shirt which will be a hammer blow to our survival.

Really hope I’m wrong but he’s had the 6 months of his career to finally secure 1 decent contract.

He wasn’t at the match on Saturday whereas other injured players were - Blair, Brown etc

Even Willo turned up.
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longmover
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The sooner we get relegated the sooner the board can start planning to finishing 12th in league two where they feel comfortable. Don't worry league one little old Cheltenham know their place we wont get in the way for much longer.

Barry Bannan is 32, he scored nine league goals last season, do you think Wednesday would value him at £500k if he scored 23 league goals?
Si Robin
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Barry Bannan the midfielder? Who has Scottish caps and has a history of playing in the Championship? Who made the League 1 team of the season? That Barry Bannan?
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longmover
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Si Robin wrote: 04 Jul 2022, 09:10 Barry Bannan the midfielder? Who has Scottish caps and has a history of playing in the Championship? Who made the League 1 team of the season? That Barry Bannan?
Come on now you know what I mean :lol: If May was playing for a top six side and had the stats he has for us (last season) he wouldn't being valued at £500k.
Si Robin
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If he was playing for a top 6 side, he'd have probably scored more goals and be on a lot more money.

As I've already posted, but am now correcting myself, only 2 forwards his age and over have ever gone for more than £500k from this division (not including those sold in the summer after a team has been relegated from the Championship, so discounting the likes of Kevin Lisbie and Kieffer Moore). Lee Trundle from Swansea to Bristol City and James Vaughan from Bury to Sunderland.

Whilst Vaughan's record was never really prolific, he had a history of playing at a higher level. In fact his only season at League One level up to that point was with Bury and he scored 24 goals in 37 games. The fee - around £500k.
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longmover
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Si Robin wrote: 04 Jul 2022, 14:00 If he was playing for a top 6 side, he'd have probably scored more goals and be on a lot more money.

As I've already posted, but am now correcting myself, only 2 forwards his age and over have ever gone for more than £500k from this division (not including those sold in the summer after a team has been relegated from the Championship, so discounting the likes of Kevin Lisbie and Kieffer Moore). Lee Trundle from Swansea to Bristol City and James Vaughan from Bury to Sunderland.

Whilst Vaughan's record was never really prolific, he had a history of playing at a higher level. In fact his only season at League One level up to that point was with Bury and he scored 24 goals in 37 games. The fee - around £500k.
times change just because it has only happened twice doesn't mean it will never happen again.
Si Robin
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No it doesn't, but if you work on the balance of probabilities, then it's fair to assume that £500k is a fair price for him, even if we as fans feel we're being shortchaged.
asl
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Si is the new Voice of Reason.

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RegencyCheltenhamSpa
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Surely a fair price is what our Board feel is needed to compensate for the loss of the player/goals, regardless of what other players may have been sold for in past years.
Si Robin
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You're right, but if I've been able to find the information out above, then his agent will obviously have access to it. We're not a club that hold players to ransom and, to be fair, there would be no benefit to keeping him to ransom. Yes, the cards are technically in the club's hands, but we all know that if a player wants to go then he's going to go.

I'm not saying that Alfie will go on strike until he gets his move, he really doesn't seem the sort, but then neither did Ben Tozer, and look what happened with him a year ago.

We can puff our chests out all we like, but the simple fact is that if someone comes in offering around £500k for Alfie then he's off and, in my opinion, we'll be lucky to get that.
Warwickshire Robin
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I agree with Si on this one. I think you have to view each case individually and not compare to deals for other players. Financially £500k would represent a decent fee and a brilliant piece of work to turn £5,000 into a 10,000% profit.

Of course, it then depends very much on what we do with that money as to how the whole deal will be viewed by us fans and how we move on as a club. If we could then pay some small fees or stretch the wage budget for two or three players in areas of need especially if those players were of the Ben Williams ilk, where there is a decent player now but with potential to improve and eventually sell on again at a good profit, we can put the rest of the money to other areas of the club that need investment and keep doing this, then overall it would be a good result in my book.

Finally though, as a fan, I would add I don't want Alfie to go for any fee, I would much rather see him in our shirt banging in the goals and buzzing about the pitch but business is business and that is what makes it hard for us fans.
asl
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I also agree with Si. He's provided some pretty irrefutable facts and figures and not just plucked an £x million figure out of their emotion-driven hopes and dreams.

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RegencyCheltenhamSpa
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Si Robin wrote: 05 Jul 2022, 07:08 You're right, but if I've been able to find the information out above, then his agent will obviously have access to it. We're not a club that hold players to ransom and, to be fair, there would be no benefit to keeping him to ransom. Yes, the cards are technically in the club's hands, but we all know that if a player wants to go then he's going to go.

I'm not saying that Alfie will go on strike until he gets his move, he really doesn't seem the sort, but then neither did Ben Tozer, and look what happened with him a year ago.

We can puff our chests out all we like, but the simple fact is that if someone comes in offering around £500k for Alfie then he's off and, in my opinion, we'll be lucky to get that.
Interesting you mention Tozer. That really showed the resolve of the Board to hold out for a big fee even though the player wanted to move.

I think most would have been chuffed to get £20k for Tozer given he was nowhere close to being good enough for what we needed for L1. Yet we somehow extracted £200k.

If the Board show the same resolve, for a player higher ranked teams will want (rather than a non-league side) then we would be getting more than £500k.
RegencyCheltenhamSpa
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asl wrote: 05 Jul 2022, 08:56 I also agree with Si. He's provided some pretty irrefutable facts and figures and not just plucked an £x million figure out of their emotion-driven hopes and dreams.

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He has provided facts and figures about what other teams were willing to sell for in the past faced with their circumstances. That doesn’t really have a bearing on our circumstances now.

I don’t buy that there is a ‘going rate’ for a player - it is dependent on the circumstances facing the selling and buying clubs.

If Si has facts and figures on whether £500k is more than enough to compensate for the loss of the player so that we improve the team and make a profit then I hope he posts them.

The price we will accept for May is determined by what we will lose and what it will cost to replace and still make profit. That might be £200k, it might be £500k, it might be £2m. I am sure the Board have a figure in mind as Moore and Wade would have been assessing options for what to do it May goes.
Si Robin
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I never said I had the figures on whether it's enough to compensate, I've already said it's the job of the board to determine if it's enough or not.

The fact that JP has reported that the board believe £500k is the figure they're prepared to let him go for, and based on history it's fair to assume he's reporting what he's been told in good faith, indicates that they believe it is more than enough to compensate the club.

My reason for bringing up historical sales and valuations is to show that whilst the club could demand (plucking a hypothetical figure out of the air) a million pounds before having their resolve tested, the likelihood is a 29 year old with 6 months of great form is unlikely to command that sort of fee, but could become a nightmare if we don't accept what has been considered reasonable for players with a much better pedigree in the past.
Si Robin
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RegencyCheltenhamSpa wrote: 05 Jul 2022, 08:57 If the Board show the same resolve, for a player higher ranked teams will want (rather than a non-league side) then we would be getting more than £500k.
A non-league side who were spending more than Football League clubs and seemingly prepared to pay over the odds for an average player.
RegencyCheltenhamSpa
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Si Robin wrote: 05 Jul 2022, 09:21
RegencyCheltenhamSpa wrote: 05 Jul 2022, 08:57 If the Board show the same resolve, for a player higher ranked teams will want (rather than a non-league side) then we would be getting more than £500k.
A non-league side who were spending more than Football League clubs and seemingly prepared to pay over the odds for an average player.
Indeed, and the point is we held for as much as we could get and wouldn’t sell below what we deemed we needed to make it worthwhile. A case in point that the transfer fee was based on circumstances of the selling and buying clubs, not the actual ability of the player or past precedents from transfers of players between random clubs in different circumstances.
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Broadway Brian
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It will be undisclosed no doubt anyway
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Ihearye
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Si Robin wrote: 04 Jul 2022, 14:00 If he was playing for a top 6 side, he'd have probably scored more goals and be on a lot more money.

As I've already posted, but am now correcting myself, only 2 forwards his age and over have ever gone for more than £500k from this division (not including those sold in the summer after a team has been relegated from the Championship, so discounting the likes of Kevin Lisbie and Kieffer Moore). Lee Trundle from Swansea to Bristol City and James Vaughan from Bury to Sunderland.

Whilst Vaughan's record was never really prolific, he had a history of playing at a higher level. In fact his only season at League One level up to that point was with Bury and he scored 24 goals in 37 games. The fee - around £500k.
There should be an amount of caution when using past figures as a guideline. The cumulative inflation since Trundle's sale is circa 44% while it is around 17% since Vaughn's sale. They would both go for considerably higher in today's market. So the 'ceiling' has been raised somewhat.
Warwickshire Robin
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Ihearye wrote: 05 Jul 2022, 13:14
Si Robin wrote: 04 Jul 2022, 14:00 If he was playing for a top 6 side, he'd have probably scored more goals and be on a lot more money.

As I've already posted, but am now correcting myself, only 2 forwards his age and over have ever gone for more than £500k from this division (not including those sold in the summer after a team has been relegated from the Championship, so discounting the likes of Kevin Lisbie and Kieffer Moore). Lee Trundle from Swansea to Bristol City and James Vaughan from Bury to Sunderland.

Whilst Vaughan's record was never really prolific, he had a history of playing at a higher level. In fact his only season at League One level up to that point was with Bury and he scored 24 goals in 37 games. The fee - around £500k.
There should be an amount of caution when using past figures as a guideline. The cumulative inflation since Trundle's sale is circa 44% while it is around 17% since Vaughn's sale. They would both go for considerably higher in today's market. So the 'ceiling' has been raised somewhat.
However to counteract that we have had the COVID season which has hit incomes and the introduction of the FFP rules so 'football inflation' outside of the Premier League will not be that high in all probability, which makes your initial statement of taking past figures with caution all the more true. Plus with so many fees now 'undisclosed' it is almost impossible for us outsiders to judge where fees are these days.
shevates
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Si Robin wrote: 02 Jul 2022, 07:53 But it's not underselling or undervaluing. £500k is about his going rate.

Yes, that's probably not what we as fans want, but it's what the market will dictate.
A more sensible reflection of his value in the market than some thinking we should get a million plus. I was hoping we would get 750K. To us as fans hes worth more as hes our leading striker, and to find a replacement will be difficult and expensive. Me personally id keep him for another season, then consider selling him with a year left on his contract or try to extend it if he has a season like last
Si Robin
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Would you keep him for another season if he makes it clear he wants to go and starts becoming a nuisance in the dressing room (again, I'm not saying Alfie will do this, this is entirely hypothetical)?
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Ihearye
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Si Robin wrote: 05 Jul 2022, 13:55 Would you keep him for another season if he makes it clear he wants to go and starts becoming a nuisance in the dressing room (again, I'm not saying Alfie will do this, this is entirely hypothetical)?
I would sell, based on my own doubts that the second half of last season could not and will not ever be repeated. However, I doubt the board will come asking for my opinion :)
Si Robin
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That's precisely the reason why I would snap your hand off for £500k :D
Robin
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I believe it's when not if Alfie leaves however my concern is really who replaces him so late in the window, even with £500k in our pocket it will be hard persuading players to leave so we will look at loans but most of the better ones will be out already. Internally I don't see George Lloyd as his successor and Charlie Brown cannot seem to stay fit.
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