Deciding games

[asl]

Cheltenham
Home v Lincoln
Home v Peterborough
Away v Stevenage

Port Vale
Away v Bolton
Home v Cambridge

Burton
Home v Reading
Away v Fleetwood

Cambridge
Home v Derby
Home v Wycombe
Away v Port Vale

On the face of it, the saving grace is that we have two home games. It's easy to see Vale getting 3 points out of their remaining games - a bonus point at Bolton, if they're lucky. Burton are on such a rotten run of form, it's hard to imagine they will get more than 1 point - but they have two potentially-winnable games. I've included Cambridge, but I suspect they will just creep over the line without any last-day drama. We just need to finish ahead of Vale and Burton.

Assuming the 4 points for Vale, winning just one (or drawing all!) of our remaining fixtures *should* be enough thanks to our goal difference.

[PCrobin]

Thanks for doing the calculations! Is it to our advantage that Lincoln & Peterborough both have a lot to play for and will be as nervous as we are? Carlisle & Gas games proved we're no good against teams who could take their foot off the gas!

[QED]

Steve Evans the early favourite to return to Rotherham after they sacked their management team… could see us facing a team with no manager and nothing to play for on the final day.

[asl]

Problem is, Burton could potentially get 6 points. Realistically, our best chance for a win is probably this weekend - it's hard to see us getting many more than 3 points from our last games, which are definitely the toughest of the set. We could easily get less than 3 points - and that leaves us hoping Vale and Burton drop points. If Burton do the unthinkable and win both their winnable games, I suspect we're stuffed as I doubt the most optimistic fans would see us getting 7 or 9 points on our form.

[Broadway Brian]

Problem is, Burton could potentially get 6 points. Realistically, our best chance for a win is probably this weekend - it's hard to see us getting many more than 3 points from our last games, which are definitely the toughest of the set. We could easily get less than 3 points - and that leaves us hoping Vale and Burton drop points. If Burton do the unthinkable and win both their winnable games, I suspect we're stuffed as I doubt the most optimistic fans would see us getting 7 or 9 points on our form.

Vale and Burton will surely drop points. Bolton are still fighting for automatic and Vale are fragile after that Exeter capitulation.

Burton were garbage last night.

Both sets of fans want their respective managers gone.

Could do with Cambridge losing the next 2 so they have to beat the Vagrants last game.

Personally I fancy us more against Posh (some odd results lately and guaranteed play-offs) or Stevenage (beach boys) than Lincoln on Saturday. That feels like our hardest game to me.

[asl]

Put it this way: in a fight against relegation, would you rather have our run-in of 3 games or Burton's 2 games? I agree, I can't see them getting more than 1 point - but my point is, they *could* and it's far more likely than Vale winning both theirs - let alone us winning all three.

[Warwickshire Robin]

Problem is, Burton could potentially get 6 points. Realistically, our best chance for a win is probably this weekend - it's hard to see us getting many more than 3 points from our last games, which are definitely the toughest of the set. We could easily get less than 3 points - and that leaves us hoping Vale and Burton drop points. If Burton do the unthinkable and win both their winnable games, I suspect we're stuffed as I doubt the most optimistic fans would see us getting 7 or 9 points on our form.

Vale and Burton will surely drop points. Bolton are still fighting for automatic and Vale are fragile after that Exeter capitulation.

Burton were garbage last night.

Both sets of fans want their respective managers gone.

Could do with Cambridge losing the next 2 so they have to beat the Vagrants last game.

Personally I fancy us more against Posh (some odd results lately and guaranteed play-offs) or Stevenage (beach boys) than Lincoln on Saturday. That feels like our hardest game to me.

Agree re Lincoln. I see that Oxford play Stevenage on Friday night so by Saturday afternoon Lincoln could be 5 points behind Oxford meaning they 100% have to win to stand a chance of getting that last playoff spot, so whether that inspires them or adds on too much pressure will be interesting to see! An Oxford win will also see Stevenage officially on the beach for our game.

Also, Derby beating Cambridge on Saturday would be a doubly good result as it would almost certainly see Peterborough's automatic promotion chances disappear, would mean they have to win their last three games and overcome a minimum 11 goal goal difference, and hope Derby lose at home to Carlisle on the last day.

[Broadway Brian]

My bum is squeaking. My optimistic head says LDW for the last three games.

Whether that will be enough?

GD 2 goals better off than Burton. Could be vital by end of season. Get that toe strapped Luke.

[Si Robin]

Steve Evans has left Stevenage to take over at Rotherham.

Not sure if this is a good or bad thing - Stevenage's form had nose-dived.

[Robin]

It really is a case of who is the least worst of the three of us and form wise Burton and Vale are worse than us. Contrary to what is written above I fear Saturday is the hardest of our three remaining fixtures the other two we are capable of getting something from a Posh side who will have nothing to play for and hopefully resting a few players ahead of the play offs (certainly they won't want injuries or suspensions) and a out of form Stevenage team with no manager who were just beaten by Burton (who are worse than us). But then everyone would have thought that against bottom of the table Carlisle and bottom of the form table Bristol Rovers.

I have a feeling four points might well see us safe as Vale surely won't get more than three points and Burton might not win another although I could see them getting a draw up at Fleetwood.

[robinsrule]

I also see Lincoln as our hardest game - they have been on fire recently.

Does anyone know whether blocks 7&8 are being sold to us or to Lincoln fans?

[CTFCfan99]

I also see Lincoln as our hardest game - they have been on fire recently.

Does anyone know whether blocks 7&8 are being sold to us or to Lincoln fans?

Think I saw a post on another thread saying block 7 was on sale to home fans. Good decision if so, common sense prevails.

[Si Robin]

Lincoln have been given a maximum of 1,055 tickets and are within the final 100 of those.

[Warwickshire Robin]

Interesting take on Peterborough here which may give us some hope:-

https://www.peterboroughtoday.co.uk/spo ... es-4593854

[Shade]

Lincoln will be our hardest game by far, as far as I'm concerned. They're in great form, just beat Oxford away to close the gap to the last play-off spot and did it with 10 men for the last 20 mins or so. Plus, we have a c!#p recent record against them.

Peterborough I think may be starting to think about the play-offs and possibly resting a player or two (as the article above that I've just read also suggests), as they won't be getting automatic. But they may also want to keep the team going and go into the play-offs on a winning run.

Stevenage, who knows, it's a lottery when they have an interim manager. From here, it looks like the best chance of 3 points.

However, I don't think scraping past a pretty awful Burton means we are suddenly going to be able to beat anyone else. Adrenalin might get us through one but the players we have left seem to be on their knees. Even Shepherd was struggling and he's a fit young lad. But if Taylor can stay fit enough to play 60/70 minutes in each of the last 3 games then we've got a punchers chance. Nobody else in our team scores the chance he put away last night.

Burton will win at Fleetwood, I reckon, but lose to Reading.

Vale...I can see defeat on Saturday and a draw v Cambridge, who won't be involved.

Btw, Fleetwood aren't entirely out of contention just yet. To be honest, we could do with them beating Orient this Saturday so that they still have a chance and go into the Burton game needing to win to climb above them.

I reckon it will end:
Cambridge 47/48
Burton 46
----------------------------------------------
Cheltenham 45 (or fewer)
Vale 41
Fleetwood 40

[Wellwisher]

... we are capable of getting something from a Posh side who will have nothing to play for...

It's unlikely, I know, but Posh can still get automatic promotion if they win their last 3 games (would leave them on 89 points) and Derby take two/one/zero points from their last two games (presently on 86 points, though with a better GD).

And Posh's first game of the three is away to Bristol Rvrs on Saturday, so that a victory there would put them in good heart for CTFC on Tuesday if Derby haven't already won away to Cambridge on Saturday.

[RegencyCheltenhamSpa]

I had discounted Cambridge so thanks for including…it’s possible we could actually be above them before the final game in the best case scenario.

[HamTown]

Not sure if this has been mentioned anywhere else but Pett, Keena, Freestone all out for the last 3 and Lloyd touch and go aswell.

At least we're well stocked for LCBs and CMs. As for forwards, lets just hope MT can hold together.

[Ihearye]

Not sure if this has been mentioned anywhere else but Pett, Keena, Freestone all out for the last 3 and Lloyd touch and go aswell.

At least we're well stocked for LCBs and CMs. As for forwards, lets just hope MT can hold together.

Never fear, I am a free agent and will be bringing an old pair of boots along. Who knows where they will take me!

[Ihearye]

Lincoln will be our hardest game by far, as far as I'm concerned. They're in great form, just beat Oxford away to close the gap to the last play-off spot and did it with 10 men for the last 20 mins or so. Plus, we have a c!#p recent record against them.

Peterborough I think may be starting to think about the play-offs and possibly resting a player or two (as the article above that I've just read also suggests), as they won't be getting automatic. But they may also want to keep the team going and go into the play-offs on a winning run.

Stevenage, who knows, it's a lottery when they have an interim manager. From here, it looks like the best chance of 3 points.

However, I don't think scraping past a pretty awful Burton means we are suddenly going to be able to beat anyone else. Adrenalin might get us through one but the players we have left seem to be on their knees. Even Shepherd was struggling and he's a fit young lad. But if Taylor can stay fit enough to play 60/70 minutes in each of the last 3 games then we've got a punchers chance. Nobody else in our team scores the chance he put away last night.

Burton will win at Fleetwood, I reckon, but lose to Reading.

Vale...I can see defeat on Saturday and a draw v Cambridge, who won't be involved.

Btw, Fleetwood aren't entirely out of contention just yet. To be honest, we could do with them beating Orient this Saturday so that they still have a chance and go into the Burton game needing to win to climb above them.

I reckon it will end:
Cambridge 47/48
Burton 46
----------------------------------------------
Cheltenham 45 (or fewer)
Vale 41
Fleetwood 40

From what I saw of fleetwood, they came closer to beating us than Burton did, so am hopeful with that one. Always hold on to the hope that players near relegation are looking to prove they are worth keeping. However, some of our recent performances would put doubt in that theory

[HamTown]

Not sure if this has been mentioned anywhere else but Pett, Keena, Freestone all out for the last 3 and Lloyd touch and go aswell.

At least we're well stocked for LCBs and CMs. As for forwards, lets just hope MT can hold together.

Never fear, I am a free agent and will be bringing an old pair of boots along. Who knows where they will take me!

Phew. 9 points in the bag

[Warwickshire Robin]

Not sure if this has been mentioned anywhere else but Pett, Keena, Freestone all out for the last 3 and Lloyd touch and go aswell.

At least we're well stocked for LCBs and CMs. As for forwards, lets just hope MT can hold together.

Never fear, I am a free agent and will be bringing an old pair of boots along. Who knows where they will take me!

Just make sure they are Billy's Boots but make sure your Mum doesn't give them away on the morning of the game so you have to go on an adventure to find them and get back in time to score the winner. (One for the kids there!)

[Ihearye]

Not sure if this has been mentioned anywhere else but Pett, Keena, Freestone all out for the last 3 and Lloyd touch and go aswell.

At least we're well stocked for LCBs and CMs. As for forwards, lets just hope MT can hold together.

Never fear, I am a free agent and will be bringing an old pair of boots along. Who knows where they will take me!

Just make sure they are Billy's Boots but make sure your Mum doesn't give them away on the morning of the game so you have to go on an adventure to find them and get back in time to score the winner. (One for the kids there!)

I regret to say the said boots have a mind of their own, there is no telling what jolly japes I will get in to before I am called upon to score the winner

[Shade]

Here's a little oddity. Something that can't have happened many times, if ever, is that we are nearly bottom on this Saturday's list of L1 fixtures. There are 11 L1 games tomorrow. Northampton v Exeter kicks off at 2pm. The other 10 games at 3pm. You have to go all the way down the list to 3rd from bottom before finding our fixture, as Blackpool, Bolton, Bristol Rovers, Burton, Cambridge, Carlisle and Charlton are all playing at home as well! The only team before us in alphabetical order that aren't playing at home is Barnsley.

[CTFC.Harry]

Stevenage draw to Oxford

Now confirmed that Stevenage can no longer reach the playoffs so hopefully they’ll put the youth out against us!

[CTFCfan99]

Result also means Lincoln can go into the top 6 if they beat us. Bit of added pressure for them?

[asl]

I did say Burton had two winnable games left...

That leaves us needing to win both our remaining games while hoping Burton don't get more than a draw (and Cambridge don't get more than a point from their last two).

The Rotund Lady is warming up her vocal chords...

[Warwickshire Robin]

Darren Ferguson after today's game:-

"Tuesday will be a completely different team. I’ll be freshening the whole team up because that’ll be the only opportunity I’ve got to do it.

"We’ve had a lot of games, I wasn’t going to risk anyone but we all had an eye on if Derby were going to slip up today.

"They’ve done their job, we’ve got today out of the way, we’ve done our job to get the home leg of the semi-final second. Now I can rest all of the players that have been playing on Tuesday. It’ll be a completely different team.”

A glimmer maybe?!?!

[CTFCfan99]

Darren Ferguson after today's game:-

"Tuesday will be a completely different team. I’ll be freshening the whole team up because that’ll be the only opportunity I’ve got to do it.

"We’ve had a lot of games, I wasn’t going to risk anyone but we all had an eye on if Derby were going to slip up today.

"They’ve done their job, we’ve got today out of the way, we’ve done our job to get the home leg of the semi-final second. Now I can rest all of the players that have been playing on Tuesday. It’ll be a completely different team.”

A glimmer maybe?!?!

Maybe. Certainly puts the pressure on Burton if we do win. Just take it to the last day and who knows.

[Broadway Brian]

Darren Ferguson after today's game:-

"Tuesday will be a completely different team. I’ll be freshening the whole team up because that’ll be the only opportunity I’ve got to do it.

"We’ve had a lot of games, I wasn’t going to risk anyone but we all had an eye on if Derby were going to slip up today.

"They’ve done their job, we’ve got today out of the way, we’ve done our job to get the home leg of the semi-final second. Now I can rest all of the players that have been playing on Tuesday. It’ll be a completely different team.”

A glimmer maybe?!?!

Maybe. Certainly puts the pressure on Burton if we do win. Just take it to the last day and who knows.

It’s a glimmer. I think the key factor in all of this, and in the last 2 months is “but Cheltenham can’t rest any of their players as they’re stretched as hell and flogging nearly dead horses”.

We’ll be knackered after 50 mins as per, so need to take any first half chances we can.

Come on boys.

[paperboy]

Crikey we could potentially be rooting for dear old Fleetwood next Saturday.
Oh well needs must perhaps.

Talking of potentially, drama has come to town regarding the National League play offs.

https://www.thenationalleague.org.uk/na ... club-81474

The controversy now is that they have given Solihull 5th, a bye to the play offs rather than Altrincham who finished 4th.
If the worst happens I think I'll be hoping Solihull prevail purely for logistical reasons.

That could maybe be mean either Birmingham City or Solihull on Boxing Day.


UPDATE by NL. Altrincham now given bye.

All academic because we're going to thrash Posh Reserves and humiliate Stevenage, whilst our new best friends, Fleetwood rain on Burton's parade.

[Ihearye]

Time to do the roll call at Rorke's Drift again and see who we can put out tomorrow night. Can't recall a season where we have lost so many players for lengthy periods. Been a tough one